2025 began as yet another chapter in what has felt like a perpetual decade of conflict in the Middle East. The war in Gaza continued unabated, sectarian tensions once again threatened to plunge Syria into chaos, clashes persisted between Hezbollah and Israel along the Lebanese border, and a brief but intense conflict erupted between Israel and Iran. As the year draws to a close, however, the region finds itself in a more subdued if uncertain moment. With several conflicts cooling, many are now asking how 2025 will be remembered and what lies ahead in 2026.
In early 2025, Bashar al-Assad was finally ousted after more than thirteen years of brutal civil war. Initial optimism was quickly tempered by renewed violence. In March, massacres targeted Alawite communities; in July, Druze populations in Suwayda were attacked; and later in the year, ISIS carried out a suicide bombing at a Christian Orthodox church. Despite these setbacks, Syria’s transitional leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, has made notable diplomatic strides meeting with world leaders, addressing the United Nations, and holding talks with U.S. President Donald Trump. Most international sanctions have since been lifted.
Still, uncertainty remains. Speaking to Alhurra from Syria, Vera Mironova, a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, cautioned against excessive optimism.
“People are not very optimistic on the ground,” she said. “There are lots of challenges facing the government. The economy is in terrible shape, inflation is massive, unemployment is rising. Sanctions were lifted only recently, and even basic things like bank cards won’t work properly until next year.”
Reflecting on the holiday season, Mironova noted continued security concerns.
“Christmas celebrations are ongoing, but under heavy security. Former al-Nusra fighters are guarding Christmas trees. The government is trying to show it can protect religious diversity, but it still struggles to control some of its own fighters, especially foreign ones.”
Meanwhile, Iraq held parliamentary elections earlier this year. Although a new government has yet to be formed, the transition has been largely peaceful. Wladimir van Wilgenburg, a journalist based in Erbil, told Alhurra that expectations remain cautious.
“Here in Kurdistan, people are hoping that a new government in Baghdad will at least end the recurring disputes over salaries being withheld or delayed.”
Despite broader political frustration, daily life in the Kurdistan Region has improved.
“Services like water and electricity are much better than before. For example, we now have 24/7 electricity,” van Wilgenburg said.
In June, Iran and Israel fought a short but intense war that left both sides weakened. More significant than the military damage, however, has been Iran’s accelerating economic collapse. Alan Eyre, a diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Alhurra that Iran’s internal situation is deteriorating rapidly.
“The past year has brought severe water stress to major urban centers, along with rolling blackouts across the country. The rial is now at its weakest point in history against the dollar.”
Eyre emphasized that much of Iran’s crisis is man-made rather than environmental.
“You have what’s essentially a water mafia controlling distribution. The IRGC is heavily involved in construction projects for profit, even when those projects worsen water shortages. That said, the return of the rainy season may provide some limited relief.”
In Israel, the war in Gaza and fighting along the Lebanese border have largely wound down. Yet the trauma of October 7 remains deeply embedded in Israeli society. As the security situation stabilizes, political divisions are again taking center stage.
According to Eyal Zisser, professor of Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, polarization has become the defining feature of Israeli politics.
“Everyone is convinced the other side will ruin the country,” he said. For critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, concerns center on what they see as institutional decay. “The destruction of the civil service, corruption, and policies that privilege certain sectors of society at the expense of others,” Zisser explained.
Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, believes Netanyahu’s tenure may soon come to an end.
“I’m not sure Netanyahu will remain prime minister after the next election. I think he will be replaced,” Michael said. “The next government will likely be broad and include Likud, but without Netanyahu.”
While there is cautious optimism about Israel’s economic recovery, Michael warned of deeper challenges ahead, particularly in relations with the United States.
“The special relationship between Israel and the U.S. was built on two pillars: shared values and strategic interests. Today, the pillar of shared values is becoming increasingly shaky, especially amid rising antisemitism on both the left and the right.”
As 2025 closes, the Middle East finds itself in an uneasy pause, less defined by open warfare than by fragile transitions, unresolved political struggles, and deep uncertainty about what comes next.
Ringo Harrison
Ringo Harrison is a content coordinator based in Washington DC. He is a recent graduate from Lund University in Asian Studies. He previously worked at American Purpose.
