In recent years, the world’s attention has drifted away from Somalia as major global crises consumed the military capacities of many countries and dominated their diplomatic focus.
That preoccupation, however, has not altered Somalia’s reality. The fires beneath the ashes of its deep-seated problems have continued to smolder, including separatist tendencies, the activity of terrorist organizations, poverty, drought and other chronic challenges.
Israel’s recognition of the Somaliland region as an independent state has now stirred what had been relatively still waters, prompting a flurry of diplomatic contacts among several countries in the Middle East and North Africa, foremost among them Egypt.
In this context, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty held a series of calls on Friday with the foreign ministers of Somalia, Turkey and Djibouti, all of whom rejected the Israeli recognition.
Egypt also led a diplomatic push that resulted in a joint statement signed by 20 countries, along with the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, expressing total rejection of Israel’s move and linking it to any potential plans to displace Palestinians. Cairo further called for an emergency meeting of the African Union’s Peace and Security Council to discuss the implications of the recognition.
The Israeli move presents additional challenges for Egypt in Somalia, given the country’s strategic and geographic importance and the existing military and economic cooperation between Cairo and Mogadishu.
Somali Warning
At an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council on Monday, Ihab Awad, Egypt’s permanent representative to the United Nations, said Israel’s announcement recognizing “Somaliland” constituted a dangerous precedent and a flagrant violation of international law and the U.N. Charter, as well as a direct assault on Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity. He said such steps threaten international peace and security and run counter to African Union principles.
In the same vein, Somalia’s minister of information, culture and tourism, Daoud Aweis Jama, told Alhurra that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence amounted to a direct attack on Somalia’s sovereignty and would undermine security in the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden. He said the move could bolster the activities of terrorist groups confronting Somalia, such as ISIS and the Shabab militant group, and could encourage separatist movements worldwide, posing a broader threat to global stability.
The Somali minister added that the region as a whole faces growing security risks as a result of the announcement, warning of possible disruptions to maritime traffic in the Red Sea. He stressed Somalia’s firm rejection of what he described as Israel’s reckless decision, citing its “serious repercussions that could draw external hostility and conflicts into Somalia’s interior.”
Egyptian Concerns
For Egypt, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is expected to carry several long-term consequences.
Ramy Zahdy, an expert on African affairs, told Alhurra that Egyptian concerns fall into three main spheres. The first involves setting a dangerous precedent that legitimizes secession by force or through external backing, potentially encouraging other separatist movements across Africa. The second relates to efforts to redraw spheres of influence in the Horn of Africa in ways that harm Arab and African interests and exert indirect pressure on Egypt’s national security. The third centers on fears that the region could become a platform for security, intelligence or military influence by external powers, further complicating the security environment around Egypt to its south and east.
Hassan Sheikh Ali Noor, a professor of security studies at the Higher Institute for Security Studies in Mogadishu, told Alhurra that the timing of Israel’s recognition appears to be little more than an attempt to export Israel’s domestic crises abroad. He said any Israeli involvement in Red Sea security would pose a direct threat to international navigation and disrupt global trade.
Joint Cooperation
In August 2024, Egypt and Somalia signed a military cooperation protocol.
At the time, the Egyptian presidency said the agreement aimed to “strengthen the capabilities of the Somali state and its national institutions to preserve security and stability and combat terrorist and extremist organizations.”
Economic cooperation also exists between Egypt and Somalia across several sectors, including trade, health care and transportation.
Somalia holds particular importance for Cairo because of its geography. The country shares borders with Ethiopia, which remains at odds with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and has coastlines along the Gulf of Aden, in addition to its proximity to key straits and maritime corridors.
In this context, Zahdy said that “any potential Israeli security or intelligence presence in Somaliland would effectively mean approaching Bab el-Mandeb, one of the most critical arteries of global maritime security, directly affecting Egyptian and Arab national security, and possibly global security as well.”
He added that “the threat is not limited to maritime traffic or the Suez Canal alone but extends to reshaping naval power balances and creating new pressure points that could be leveraged politically or militarily during times of tension.”
