Iraq’s political deadlock now turns on a single question: does Nouri al-Maliki come back?
His bid to return to power has pushed the government formation crisis into a more volatile phase, deepening divisions inside the Shiite Coordination Framework and drawing an unusually blunt warning from Washington.
For the second time, parliament failed to convene a session to elect a president and designate a prime minister. This time, the collapse was driven not by Kurdish infighting, but by disagreement over Maliki’s candidacy, according to sources inside the Coordination Framework, the Shiite coalition entitled to nominate the next government.
Nearly two weeks after President Donald Trump warned that Maliki’s return would have consequences for U.S.-Iraq relations, Shiite leaders remain deadlocked. A Framework official told Alhurra that three scenarios are now under discussion.
The first is persuading Maliki to withdraw in favor of a consensus figure acceptable domestically and internationally. The name most frequently mentioned is Hamid al-Shatri, Iraq’s intelligence chief, seen by several factions as a low-profile security figure with broad backing. This option hinges on Maliki stepping aside, which he has so far refused.
The second scenario is pressing ahead with Maliki’s nomination and forcing a parliamentary vote. That path faces stiff resistance. Sunni blocs and key Shiite factions, including Ammar al-Hakim’s Hikma Movement, have declared their opposition, making it difficult to secure the quorum and votes required.
A third option, now being discussed more openly, would keep Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s caretaker government in place for up to a year with expanded authorities, effectively postponing resolution while negotiations continue.
In Washington, the standoff is seen as more than an internal Iraqi dispute. A former U.S. ambassador to Iraq told Alhurra that Trump’s opposition reflects a broader judgment about Iraq’s direction. “This isn’t about personalities,” he said. “There is a view in Washington that returning to that model of governance would deepen instability and complicate Iraq’s external relationships.”
Inside the Coordination Framework, intermediaries have tested whether the U.S. position is negotiable. According to a senior member, the response was clear: Trump’s opposition remains firm, and proceeding with Maliki would carry diplomatic and economic consequences.
Maliki has rejected what he calls “blatant American interference” in Iraq’s sovereignty. But his stance has sharpened internal rifts, where resistance to his candidacy existed even before Trump’s intervention.
For now, the Framework is stuck between escalation and retreat – pushing forward at the risk of confrontation with Washington or backing down at the cost of internal unity. With no consensus in sight, Iraq’s paralysis is deepening, and the question is no longer just who governs next, but how long the system can absorb the strain.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Ghassan Taqi
A journalist specializing in Iraqi affairs, he has worked with the Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN) since 2015. He previously spent several years with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, as well as various Iraqi and Arab media outlets.
