Welcome back to the MBN Friday Briefing, our weekly roundup of our best reporting on the Middle East and Washington.
The next time we meet here, we could be in the midst of an armed conflict in the Persian Gulf. The biggest U.S. combat force since 2003 is now within striking distance of Iran. And it isn’t simply for show; the force is big enough to support weeks of fighting, not just a quick hit. If missiles fly, who will rush to Iran’s defense? China isn’t in much of a mood to intervene on behalf of its ally, writes MBN’s China Tracker team. We report from Washington and the region.
Next door to Iran, MBN learned exclusively that Iraq’s ruling political bloc has caved to U.S. pressure, scrapping Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki as their nominee, and replacing him with one of three potential candidates. Read Ghassan Taqi’s story below.
The Friday Briefing is also published in Arabic. If you were forwarded this newsletter, subscribe here. We’d love to hear from you at thebriefing@mbn-news.com.
This Week on MBN
Israel Braces for U.S. – Iran Clash
Israeli officials think the U.S. could strike Iran with very little warning — and consider it no longer a question of if, but when. The Israeli army is already on high alert, especially in the north. MBN’s Yehia Qasim reports from Tel Aviv that there’s a real concern not only from Iranian missile attacks, but also from Tehran’s regional proxies.
Watch the video here
MBN Iran Briefing:
Andres Ilves’ weekly reporting and understanding of what’s going on in Tehran and its impact on the wider world.
Iran Fortifies Western Border with Russian Gear
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are beefing up their border with Iraq and haven’t “left a single stretch of the border with Iraq without deploying…ballistic missile launch platforms and radar systems in preparation for war,” Shirwan Jami, Iranian military leader, tells our flagship Arabic-language Alhurra site. They’ve rolled out Russian radar systems and positioned missile launchers nearby. Iranian opposition sources tell Dalshad Hussein that Tehran seems worried the U.S. could come in through Iraq.
Read the article here
China Stays Neutral in Iran – U.S. Face-Off
Iran is reportedly pursuing a huge arms deal with China to shore up its missile defenses against a potential U.S. attack. While China isn’t thrilled about rising U.S.–Iran tensions, it’s not rushing to rescue Tehran either. Beijing prefers to stay cautious, avoiding deep military or political commitments in the region. Based on recent trade and shipping data, MBN China Tracker editors Jim Snyder and Zhou Yu explain that while Tehran relies heavily on trade with China – it’s their main export destination – Iran barely matters to China’s global trade.
Read the article here
U.S. Security Promises to the Gulf are Ambiguous
Many Gulf states assume the U.S. will automatically defend them, but that might not be the case. There’s no NATO-style guarantee forcing Washington to step in. Experts tell MBN’s Sakina Abdallah that protection depends on specific bilateral deals and direct threats to Americans.
Read the article here
Hezbollah Supports Iran, but Can’t Do Much About It
Hezbollah’s Secretary General Naim Qassem says they wouldn’t stay neutral if the U.S. attacks Iran. Asraf Chbaro argues that the group is weaker than it’s been in decades, and with Israel keeping constant watch over southern Lebanon, the group’s threat is mostly geared for local consumption.
Read the article here
Forget al-Maliki as Iraq’s Prime Minister
In an exclusive MBN story, Ghassan Taqi reports that Iraq’s main Shia alliance is heeding repeated U.S. warnings against nominating former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. More than half its factions now see him as the wrong choice for the premiership, and folks are now floating other names.
Read the article here
Millions of Girls Still at Risk From FGM
UNICEF says 4.5 million girls could face Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) in 2026. Religious authorities in Egypt have clearly outlawed the practice. Aya Elbaz explains in this video that social pressure and tradition remain powerful forces that keep the gap between law and reality dangerously wide.
Watch the video here
Ramadan Belongs to Conscience, Not the Police
Ramadan is meant to deepen faith, not to be enforced by fear or punishments. Some governments arrest or discipline people for eating in public during the holy month, but belief doesn’t work that way. MBN’s contributor Mustafa Akyol writes for MBN Magazine that worship comes from personal conviction, not pressure from police or laws. He believes that true faith grows with freedom, not force.
Read the article here
The Role of Reason in Interpreting Religious Texts
In his program on Alhurra, MBN’s contributor Ibrahim Essa argues that reasoning must be the primary tool for faith. He criticizes traditional Salafist stances (a puritanical Sunni movement) that reject rational interpretation. Essa claims that refusing reason in theology is a “call to mental suspension.”
Watch the video here
Closer
“A possible landing zone, it is not zero enrichment in rhetoric, but it could be zero risk in practice.”
—State Department official to MBN on Iran’s nuclear proposal
