History, democracy, and shifting alliances

Dear Colleagues,

The U.S. has spoken about the cause of  “freedom for the people” of Iran. Today at 11 am EDT, we’ll host board member Ilan Berman, our colleague Roya Hakakian, and MBN bureau chief Joe Kawly for a discussion on political change and the intersection between security and democracy. Look for a link from Deirdre.

We’ll have Freedom House CEO Jamie Fly advancing this discussion next Monday April 27 at 1:30 pm EDT from The Line Hotel in Adams Morgan. Stay tuned for details. If you want a hint of the new vibe for these conversations, click here (and thanks, Aya, for the creative work).

I’ll join a panel with Jamie next Monday at 6:30 pm at George Washington University on broader issues of U.S. public diplomacy. Registration is available here.

For details on Iran, our audiences keep turning to Andres and his newsletters. Andres is an expert on ethnicity.

We may still see Iran’s ethnic minorities try to take advantage of the current conflict to seize greater autonomy — or overthrow the regime. Persians make up roughly 61 percent of Iran’s population of 93 million. Four minority groups—the Kurds, Balochs, Lurs, and Ahwazi Arabs—maintain armed factions.

Iranian Uprisings, Human Rights, And Human Costs

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regime’s Basij militia are preparing today for all manner of uprisings. And they have help.

We broke the story last week — thanks, Dalshad Hussein — on how the IRGC has been dividing the country into three zones, with internal security responsibilities assigned to three foreign groups: 1) the Fatemiyoun militia, composed of Afghan Shiite fighters; 2) the Zainebiyoun militia, composed of Pakistani Shiite fighters; and 3) Iran-backed Iraqi groups, including Kataib Hezbollah Iraq.

The regime’s practice of enlisting foreign militia to assist with the crushing of internal dissent goes back to 2009 and the time of the Green Revolution. During this year’s brutal crackdown in January, foreign fighters showed themselves more than willing to kill unarmed Iranian citizens.

Ongoing Conflict, Shifting Alliances

We’re following closely the ceasefire in Lebanon. Read our editor-in-chief  Leila’s piece for Christian in the MBN Magazine; her essay is thoughtful, personal. Leila shares lived history.

Since March, conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has displaced more than one million people, roughly 20 percent of Lebanon’s population. Today, the IDF is warning residents not to return to dozens of specific villages in southern Lebanon.

We’ll keep sharing perspectives and publishing the original reporting our audiences expect from us.

Here’s Rami on why Israel views Turkey as the new Iran.

And here’s Ezat and Sakina on how the Iran war has Abu Dhabi reconsidering its partners.

Ghassan, Ringo, and Sakina report for us on Pakistan as mediator between the United States and Iran. But that’s not all.

Last Friday, foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia met on Iran and regional issues in the southern Turkish province of Antalya.

The World Bank has just reclassified Pakistan from South Asia to the Middle East and North Africa regional for its reporting.

There are hints that Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have an eye to check Israel after the Iran war, mounting in effect a challenge to the Abraham Accords.

After the first round of peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan’s Air Force escorted Iranian negotiators home, amidst concerns that Israel might try to kill the Iranians.

We’ll hear from Lisa Curtis and Ryan Crocker on Pakistan on May 11 at 11:30 EDT.

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We’ll scrutinize what the Iran war solves, and spawns. We’ll be announcing soon an Emerging Threats newsletter.

Here’s our Ibrahim Issa on why Islamists insist on fighting art.

We’ll have news soon on MBN strategic reinvestment plans, and a board meeting and reception to welcome family and friends to our new space.

Let’s meet next Monday for a first town hall in our new offices, 11 am EDT in the cafe (I’ll bring the coffee and doughnuts).

There’s much to discuss.

Gratefully, Jeff