Syria’s relations with Israel have undergone a dramatic shift since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the rise of Ahmad al-Sharaa to power last December.
What once seemed unthinkable has moved beyond speculation. Concrete steps are visible: diplomatic activity is already unfolding in Washington, Paris, Baku, and Riyadh.
Yet the prospect of a comprehensive peace remains distant, constrained by deep mistrust and unresolved disputes. Even so, the current moves mark a profound shift in the conflict’s dynamics. For decades, Syria stood at the forefront of the Arab–Israeli confrontation. Today, it has moved beyond merely “testing the waters” into discreet meetings and tentative security understandings, brokered or guaranteed by major capitals.
Obstacles, however, remain formidable: the unresolved Golan Heights issue, unrest inside Syria, and the polarizing background of al-Sharaa himself.
“Right now, security understandings between the two sides are likely the only realistic outcome,” Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told Alhurra. “But who knows what the future might hold?”
Al-Sharaa’s Different Tone
From his first days in office last December, Ahmad al-Sharaa adopted a tone radically different from that of Assad, speaking of a “just peace with Israel” and authorizing a series of unprecedented contacts. His openness was evident early on, as he embraced back-channel communication and direct engagement beyond the familiar slogans.
The first significant meeting took place in May in the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, where the Israeli army’s head of operations, Maj. Gen. Oded Basyuk, met officials from the Syrian interim government, with a Turkish delegation present, according to Israeli reports. The discussions focused on security, particularly curbing border smuggling and halting the transfer of Iranian weapons through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israeli media also reported roles played by the UAE and Qatar in mediating the talks, before Doha itself was struck last week by Israel in an attack targeting Hamas leaders.
The outreach was not confined to back channels. That same month, U.S. President Donald Trump met with al-Sharaa on the sidelines of a summit in Riyadh, openly inviting Syria to join the Abraham Accords and offering to lift U.S. sanctions as an incentive.
On August 20, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani held talks with an Israeli delegation in Paris. Israeli outlets reported that al-Shaibani is expected to meet Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, in the French capital later this month.
“I don’t think Syria and Israel are ready to conduct open talks with one another in public. I think they’re at a stage where everything they do must be behind the scenes,” said Ibish.
Where Is the Path Heading?
For now, normalization between Syria and Israel is still in its infancy. Meetings have been held and preliminary understandings placed on the table, but the road to a comprehensive agreement is still strewn with obstacles.
On the ground, Israel is facing an unfamiliar reality. After decades of dealing with Assad’s regime as a “known enemy,” new armed factions with uncertain intentions have appeared along its northern border.
Those early concerns quickly translated into military action. In the aftermath of the regime’s collapse, Israeli forces pushed into Syrian territory. From the Golan Heights, Benjamin Netanyahu declared the “collapse” of the 1974 disengagement agreement. Since then, Israel has built nine new bases and outposts in southern Qunaitra, including the Hamidiyah base, and expanded its footprint in both the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon.
This growing presence has coincided with repeated interventions that Israel says are aimed at protecting Druze and Christian minorities in Syria, through limited operations and direct warnings to Damascus alike.
“Before Syrian Sunni jihadists supported by the regime launched attacks on Druze areas and committed grave atrocities, there were even talks about Syria joining the Abraham Accords. I think that was premature,” Israeli researcher Dan Feferman told Alhurra.
He added: “Israel is very skeptical about such matters. It needs many guarantees, from regional partners, the international community, and especially the Americans.”
Syrian Complications
The domestic landscape in Syria is equally fraught. In Suwayda alone, hundreds were killed last July after clashes between local tribes and Druze factions spiraled into bloodshed. When Sharaa’s government forces intervened, residents accused the army of carrying out field executions, some captured on camera. Such turmoil only reinforces Israeli doubts about the durability of the new order in Damascus.
Adding to the uncertainty is President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s past. Formerly Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, he fought with al-Qaeda in Iraq after 2003, was detained by U.S. forces, and later founded Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria before rebranding it as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in 2016. That trajectory still clouds his image as a pragmatic leader, raising doubts in Israel and the West about his credibility in fighting terrorism.
“It’s not easy for Israel to strike an agreement with al-Sharaa, despite his statements and shifting positions,” researcher Hussein Ibish told Alhurra.
Complicating matters further are the armed factions folded into new Syrian government forces, alongside the unresolved Golan Heights dispute, both of which severely constrain how far al-Sharaa’s administration can go in offering concessions.
The “Red Line”
Normalization will not be possible for al-Sharaa without addressing the Golan Heights, which Syrians view as “occupied land” that cannot be surrendered. Israel, however, insists its 1981 annexation is “final and non-negotiable.” That gap makes a comprehensive peace deal nearly impossible.
“A secret security normalization may continue for some time, especially if it serves both sides’ immediate interests in preventing escalation or stabilizing the front. But its long-term durability is doubtful, because the Golan issue will remain a central sticking point,” Syrian researcher Malik al-Hafiz told Alhurra.
He added that the transitional nature of Syria’s current phase makes any such understandings fragile: they lack both constitutional legitimacy and national consensus.
Another complication lies in the religious background of Syria’s new administration, most of whose members, including Al Sharaa, come from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria. Many within this group hold strong positions opposing any dealings with Israel.
“We need to recognize how difficult normalization would be for the Syrian government,” noted Hussein Ibish. “There will be strong resistance inside Syria and within the government itself, its leadership may be interested, but cadres who once belonged to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham may not be.”
Yet for all these obstacles, outside powers are betting on diplomacy. The United States has taken the lead as the main mediator, expressing optimism that a solution can be reached “at the right time.” During his first visit to Damascus last May, U.S. envoy Tom Barrack summed up that hope: he believes peace between Syria and Israel is achievable.
In July, Barrack reiterated his hopes, saying al-Sharaa signaled from the beginning of his rule that Israel was not his enemy and that he could normalize ties in due time.
Ghassan Taqi
صحفي متخصص في الشؤون العراقية، يعمل في مؤسسة الشرق الأوسط للإرسال MBN منذ عام 2015. عمل سنوات مع إذاعة "أوروبا الحرة" ومؤسسات إعلامية عراقية وعربية.
