Israel’s assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Haitham al-Tabtabai in an airstrike on a residential building in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Monday has raised questions about whether or not the group will retaliate, what options it might have, and what will be the nature of its response, if it did retaliate.
The killing of al-Tabtabai, both in term of timing and seniority of the target, marks an escalation in Israel’s ongoing campaign of assassination of Hezbollah commanders and operatives. Analysts say it delivers a significant blow to the group’s efforts to rebuild its military command structure and to replenish its weapons stockpiles.
In principle, killing al-Tabtabai represents a direct challenge to the equation of deterrence which Hezbollah has sought to cement for years. But any decision to strike back carries multiple risks and is shaped by a host of military and political considerations at the local, regional and international levels. Ali al-Amin, editor in chief of the Lebanese news site “Janoubia”, says the group now finds itself in a genuine bind. “It is unable to respond for fear of sliding into a wider confrontation that could prove disastrous for the country, especially when Israel appears to be waiting for any reaction to expand its military operations,” he told Alhurra. Al-Amin believes Hezbollah is unlikely to initiate a response but notes that refraining from retaliation “will not be without a cost, as it may encourage Israel to intensify its strikes.”
A number of factors are restraining Hezbollah’s impulse to retaliate. They include its strained military position; the heavy losses it suffered since the start of what it called the “support war”; the deaths of many of its commanders; the disruption of weapons-supply routes through Syria; fears of triggering another wave of civilian displacement in Lebanon if Israel retaliated; and the fraught political climate, both domestically and regionally. Some argue that Hezbollah may still feel compelled to deliver a calibrated response to restore the equation of deterrence, among other considerations. But al-Amin emphasized that the group’s decisions — especially those related to its weapons — are ultimately not made in Beirut. “It is fully bound by Iran’s decisions and the guidance of its supreme leader,” he said, adding that Hezbollah’s local leadership plays a little role in shaping such strategic choices. Al -Amin concludes that “Hezbollah has no choice now but to adhere even more closely to the Iranian dictates. It expects more Israeli strikes that might bring more calamities to Lebanon as a whole, and to Hezbollah’s Shiite base in particular. Given these circumstances, some observers say Hezbollah may resort to a balancing act by issuing a limited, symbolic and carefully calibrated response.
