As Syria enters 2026, the Islamic State has found an ideal environment to restructure its presence, shifting from covert operations in the desert to infiltrating official institutions, taking advantage of the security vacuum created by stalled major political settlements.
Field reports and intelligence information reveal the group is pursuing a two-track strategy: exploiting the “chaos of military integration” to infiltrate the Ministry of Defense and leveraging internal conflicts between Syria’s communities—the Kurds, Druze, and Alawites—and the transitional authority to expand the group’s maneuvering margins on the ground.
Infiltration
Lamar Arkandi, a researcher specializing in extremist groups, said that ISIS has successfully infiltrated the “new Syrian army.” She explained that thousands of the group’s fighters who fled following the collapse of the “caliphate” and their defeat in the battles of Baghouz did not disappear entirely; instead, they sought refuge in Idlib and areas previously under the control of opposition factions.
Arkandi added that these fighters joined those factions, and with the fall of the previous regime and the formation of the transitional authority, these formations automatically integrated into the staff of the Syrian Ministry of Defense. The researcher confirmed that these elements continue to maintain the group’s combat doctrine and are waiting for the right opportunity to show their true colors.
Information indicates that these fighters “move freely across all Syrian regions under the cover of the Ministry of Defense.”
Numbers support this hypothesis, as the group intensified its activities noticeably this past year. It carried out approximately 121 operations compared to 117 attacks in 2024, an increase that reflects growth in operational capabilities bolstered by this infiltration.
A Security Vacuum in the North
The group derives part of its current strength from the stagnation of the political process in northern Syria. The agreement signed by Transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa with the general commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazlum Abdi, on March 10 is now on the brink of collapse.
Wael Alwan, a researcher at the Syrian Studies Center in Damascus, attributes this stagnation to the presence of “parties within the SDF itself seeking to expand political and field gains at the expense of the agreement,” which has created a paralysis in its implementation.
Political analyst Zana Omar said that President Ahmed al-Sharaa is pursuing a strategy of “pressure,” using ongoing Turkish threats against the north and east of Syria to push the SDF to make substantive concessions in the negotiation process over integrating its forces into the new army.
Omar noted that some regional powers; namely Turkey and Iran, have a shared interest in thwarting this agreement. He explained that allowing the SDF to integrate into the Syrian Ministry of Defense through three regular military divisions would grant it “full national legitimacy” in addition to the international legitimacy it already holds from its alliance with the global coalition against ISIS. Attaining full legitimacy would block Turkey’s expansion plans and prevent Iran from regaining influence in Syria. These motives, he notes, explain the continued pressure to maintain the region in a security vacuum exploited by ISIS.
From Dormancy to Empowerment
Observers say that delays in implementing political agreements and the preoccupation of Syrian parties with struggles over influence and identity have gradually widened the security vacuum, paving the way for ISIS’s return.
Syrian actors—whether the transitional government or the SDF—do not hide their concerns about the group’s resurgence, especially given that it still has thousands of fighters and key leaders in Gweran prison, with their families in al-Hol camp under SDF control. Researcher Lamar Arkandi does not rule out the possibility that the group is planning coordinated attacks on these prisons to free its members, exploiting the current chaos.
Analyst Zana Omar believes the group has already established a strong footing, stronger than ever, through its integration within the transitional authority’s institutions. He said ISIS has moved from a “dormant state,” employed between 2021 and 2024, to a phase of “empowerment” using new tools that include calculated attacks to influence political contexts. Omar cites the attack carried out by an ISIS fighter in Palmyra in central Syria on December 13, which killed two U.S. soldiers and an interpreter, as evidence of this shift.
Alhurra
