On the Edge of Hormuz: Gulf States Face a Difficult Test

In 2024, roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz – about one-fifth of global consumption. Around one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade also transits the strait. All Gulf states, along with Iraq and Iran to varying degrees, rely on this passage to export their oil products to Asia and other global markets.

As expectations grow that Iran could be subjected to a U.S. strike, oil prices this week approached their highest levels in seven months, according to Reuters – an indication of how acutely sensitive markets are to any threat to supply. But rising prices, while positive for exporters, do not tell the whole story. For Gulf states, there is the risk of reduced export capacity and higher costs for importing food, goods, and raw materials that also pass through Hormuz.

It is true that some countries have alternative routes. Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline can carry up to five million barrels per day to the Red Sea, and the Abu Dhabi–Fujairah pipeline allows part of the UAE’s exports to bypass the strait. However, these capacities do not fully offset the volumes that pass through Hormuz. If the strait were closed or disrupted for an extended period, producing countries would face constraints on export volumes – leading to problems related to public revenues and spending budgets.

Disruptions in this waterway would raise marine insurance premiums and shipping costs and could delay the arrival of grains, oils, frozen meats, and dairy products, notes Emirati analyst Hussein Al-Amzi. The experience of the Kuwait Liberation War in the early 1990s showed how quickly disruptions to transport routes can be reflected in local markets.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if it comes under military attack.

In June 2025, the Iranian parliament voted on a measure allowing the closure of the strait and referred the decision to the Supreme National Security Council. In a clear warning message, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps closed parts of the passage for several hours during military exercises days ago. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that any aggression would not go unanswered, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that closing the strait would undermine Iran’s own economy.

The United States has deployed a massive naval force to the region in preparation for possible strikes on Iran. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was giving Tehran between 10 and 15 days to reach an agreement.

Nevertheless, several analysts who spoke to Alhurra believe that a complete, prolonged closure would carry high costs for all parties, including Iran itself. Dr. Ellen R. Wald, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, notes that Tehran may resort to partial disruption or harassment of specific vessels but rules out a comprehensive blockade unless its oil exports are completely halted. Such a scenario, if it were to occur, would place Gulf states before a dual crisis: declining export capacity and rising import costs at the same time.

By contrast, Omani writer Ahmed Al-Shezawi does not rule out that Iran might resort to “seizing ships, conducting certain maneuvers, mining the strait, or targeting some vessels” rather than imposing a full closure. Kuwaiti academic Aayed Al-Mannaa warns that calculations could change if Iran were subjected to extensive strikes. He points out that previous confrontations have exposed the fragility of Iran’s air defenses, which could push it to broaden the scope of its response if it feels an existential threat – potentially including targeting maritime trade routes or facilities near the Gulf. Such escalation would place energy infrastructure, ports, and urban centers under significant security and economic pressure.

For Gulf capitals, the challenge lies in how to benefit from higher prices while maintaining supply stability at the same time. So far, tankers continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but any sudden change in their routes could be felt first at Gulf ports.

The article is a translation of the original Arabic.