In recent days, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) began taking a highly consequential step: evacuating thousands of Islamic State fighters from prisons in northeastern Syria and transferring them to Iraq.
In exclusive statements to Alhurra, CENTCOM said the transfer of nearly 7,000 ISIS detainees from Syria to Iraq would take only a few days.
The move has sparked debate inside Iraq and beyond.
Abroad, questions have been raised about the timing and implications of the step, alongside concerns over the fate of detainees in a country that applies the death penalty.
At home, the deeper anxiety centers on whether the world has effectively handed Iraq a “fireball,” after evading for years the search for a fundamental solution to the problem.
U.S. Concerns
According to experts, the timing of the move is not incidental. Rapid political changes in Syria have reshuffled the landscape in the country’s northeast, where the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are holding thousands of ISIS fighters.
Dr. Devorah Margolin, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, believes that the decision to transfer up to 7,000 prisoners reflects genuine U.S. concern about the security situation in northeastern Syria.
Margolin says signs of disorder and the lack of coordination between the SDF and the Syrian army suggest that any political or security transition will not be smooth. While the cease-fire has eased some fears, she argues, it “has not addressed the root causes of the crisis, as evidenced by the chaos that accompanied previous transfers in detention camps.”
The SDF has repeatedly called on concerned countries to repatriate their citizens implicated in terrorism cases from the prisons, but only a limited number of states have done so.
According to Margolin’s assessment, the detainees pose a real security threat, prompting the United States and the international coalition to view securing them inside Iraq as the least risky option at this stage.
The Iraqi Reading
In Iraq, concerns about the security repercussions of the move are ever present in a country long scarred by terrorism.
Yet Ihsan al-Shamri, a professor of strategic and international studies at the University of Baghdad, argues that transferring such a large number of detainees fits within a vision aimed at preventing a far more costly scenario: “the escape of thousands of ISIS members from SDF prisons.” Such an outcome, he says, would have cost Iraq many times more in security, military and economic terms than holding them on its territory—particularly given that the group could exploit Iraq’s geography as a fragile environment conducive to re-infiltration and renewed activity.
Still, al-Shamri does not downplay the magnitude of the challenge, describing it as “twofold”: security and financial. Iraq, he says, is entering a new test before the international community, especially since the vast majority of the detainees hold foreign nationalities, placing Baghdad in direct confrontation with capitals that refuse to shoulder their responsibilities.
The issue does not stop at the security dimension, but extends into the legal and political arena.
Margolin argues that transferring detainees to Iraq and placing them under the authority of an internationally recognized state creates legal opportunities that were previously unavailable. The SDF, she notes, lacks the authority to conduct trials or deportations, while Iraq, as a state, can undertake both. Still, Margolin points out that the Iraqi government has made clear that receiving the detainees is a temporary solution and that repatriating them to their countries of origin remains a priority.
For his part, al-Shamri believes the file could become a genuine pressure tool on states that refuse to take back their nationals. As detention continues, he says, those countries may find themselves compelled to provide financial support to Iraq, given the economic burdens the issue places on Baghdad.
The Death Penalty
International organizations have expressed concern over the possibility that Iraq could resort to carrying out the death penalty against foreign detainees based on court rulings.
Al-Shamri says that “the Iraqi judiciary, under the constitution and applicable laws, has full authority to apply the death penalty to foreigners, and there is no binding international text that prohibits this or potential pressures.” He adds: “Pressures may be political, but they are not legal.”
Iraqi law allows for the prosecution of foreigners for crimes that threaten state security, including membership in a terrorist organization that targeted Iraq, even if some acts were committed outside its territory, al-Shamri explains.
Margolin, however, says the picture remains unclear. Iraq has announced its intention to try the detainees, but it has previously issued death sentences against foreigners, including French nationals, “opening a wide door to legal and ethical questions.” She notes that there is significant pressure on the international coalition to ensure accountability for crimes, including serious international crimes, without making execution an inevitable outcome.
In this way, the issue of ISIS detainees constitutes a test for all parties involved or engaged in it. The final verdict will depend on their ability to reach a fundamental solution that helps prevent the group’s re-emergence.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
