“The real threat is that Pars—North Field could turn into something resembling the Strait of Hormuz for gas,” warns Cyril Widder Shoven, an analyst at Bluewater Strategy, in remarks to Alhurra, highlighting the danger of the Israeli strike that targeted Iran’s South Pars gas field.
The attack represents a serious escalation, shifting the conflict from conventional military targets to strategic energy infrastructure, in a region that underpins critical gas and oil supplies for global markets.
The field, located off the coast of Bushehr on the Iranian side, is the world’s largest shared gas reservoir with Qatar, where it is known as the North Field. This reserve contains approximately 1,800 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, making it a cornerstone of the global energy system and a vital artery for Europe and Asia, especially following the decline in reliance on Russian gas.
The Gulf response was swift. The United Arab Emirates described the strike as a “dangerous escalation,” while Qatar called it “a threat to global energy security.” In Washington, Donald Trump said the United States “was not aware of this attack,” stressing that Israel carried it out unilaterally.
Although an Israeli official told Axios that the strike aimed to cripple Iran’s production capacity, the facts on the ground suggest otherwise.
The Israeli strike did not hit the offshore reservoir itself but rather targeted processing facilities. In other words, what was actually struck is the bottleneck that makes offshore gas usable on land—the stage where raw gas is converted into fuel suitable for electricity generation and industrial use. The immediate impact is felt inside Iran, where domestic consumption heavily depends on this gas.
In remarks to Alhurra, Karen Young, a researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, said the attack “does not directly affect the liquefied natural gas market,” since Iran does not export LNG. However, according to Young, the pressure falls on domestic supply and could extend to pipeline gas exports to countries such as Iraq and Turkey.
The figures clearly illustrate this dependence: Iran’s gas production reached 276 billion cubic meters in 2024, of which 94% was consumed domestically.
Regionally, the fastest impact is seen in countries linked to Iranian gas or reliant on the stability of Gulf transit routes. Iraq is at the forefront, importing up to 50 million cubic meters per day from Iran. On Wednesday, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity announced the suspension of Iranian gas flows to the country due to regional developments, directly affecting power generation and leading to approximately 3,100 megawatts going offline.
Turkey is not far removed from this concern. It is also tied to a gas contract with Iran that expires in July 2026, making it vulnerable to pressure if disruptions persist or strikes are repeated.
Why Did Markets React?
The strike on South Pars facilities heightened tensions in the regional energy market, which was already experiencing disruption following earlier outages in Qatari production in early March.
At that time, Qatar Energy declared force majeure on LNG shipments from its facilities, which have an annual capacity of 77 million tons, with estimates suggesting that a return to normal operating levels could take weeks, or even months.
The risk is compounded by the fact that more than 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, while 83% of these shipments are destined for Asia, making any disruption in the Gulf immediately impactful on global markets.
However, what triggered a sharper market reaction was not the Israeli strike alone, but what followed hours later.
Iran expanded its response, targeting energy facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
At that point, the market no longer viewed events in southern Iran as an isolated incident, but as a signal that energy infrastructure across the entire Gulf could come under threat.
As a result, not only did gas prices rise, but Brent crude also surged, as traders shifted from pricing actual damage to pricing escalation risk.
Why Do Prices Spike Before the Damage Occurs?
Within hours of the strike on facilities linked to South Pars, escalation spread into the Gulf itself, with attacks targeting energy sites in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
In Qatar, a missile landed in the Ras Laffan industrial area. Saudi Arabia reported debris falling near a refinery south of Riyadh, while the UAE confirmed that the Habshan facility and the Bab gas field were targeted.
The significance of these sites lies not only in their names, but in their position within the regional energy network.
These facilities are distributed along a continuous geographic corridor stretching from southern Iran to Gulf coastlines, where gas and oil fields, processing hubs, and export terminals are tightly interlinked. In this context, targeting a single site does not appear as an isolated incident, but rather as part of an interconnected system, carrying the risk of cascading effects across the entire Gulf energy network.
Widder Shoven argues that targeting South Pars “is not about Iran alone—it strikes at the heart of the world’s largest shared gas reservoir,” adding that any attack in this area “sends a clear signal to markets, shipping companies, and buyers that the most important gas export hub in the world is now within the conflict zone.”
This is why not only did gas prices rose, but Brent crude also jumped, as market participants shifted from pricing actual damage to pricing the risk of escalation. Markets are not only reacting to what has already been disrupted at a specific facility, but to what could be disrupted next if strikes expand to the broader Gulf energy network, driving higher prices in anticipation of scenarios that have not yet materialized but have become more likely.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan, a Yemeni journalist and documentary filmmaker based in Washington, D.C., holds a master's degree in media studies.
