Welcome back to the Agenda. Today a couple exclusives.
First from Iran: Forget Mojtaba Khamenei. Ex-IRGC leader Mohsen Rezaei is really running Iran — through a triumvirate with two other Guard-linked officials.
And in Iraq, pro-Iranian militias continue to operate even as diplomatic missions scale back and U.S. pressure on Baghdad intensifies.
Plus how the Lebanese are preparing for a full-scale Israeli invasion.
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TOP OF THE NEWS
Rezaei In Charge
Iran is now effectively under the control of a three-member wartime council led by former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, according to MBN correspondent Dalshad Hussein, citing seven Iranian opposition sources, including Kurdish military leaders.
Iran is moving from a clerical system to a centralized military regime. That’s a response to the power vacuum following the killing of Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and the continued public absence of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who President Trump said may be “dead or badly disfigured.”
The transition appears to have been swift and deliberate. Hours before Larijani was killed in an Israeli airstrike, Iranian state media reported Rezaei’s appointment as a military adviser. Rezaei, a longtime hardliner who led the IRGC from 1981 to 1997 and helped build Iran’s ballistic missile program, is now at the center of decision-making.
Experts tell MBN this marks a critical shift: The IRGC is now running the state rather than operating in its shadows. The council includes Rezaei at its head; Ahmad Vahidi, an IRGC commander with a deep intelligence background; and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament, who oversees IRGC-linked economic networks.
Under this structure, the Basij has been authorized to enforce martial law, with special units empowered to open fire on public gatherings. Arrest campaigns are already underway, targeting young Iranians accused of “cooperation with the West.”
Diplomatic Exodus from Iraq
Baghdad is sliding toward isolation as diplomatic missions pull back under escalating security threats.
The NATO mission has withdrawn. The Saudi and Qatari embassies have closed after a strike on the Al-Rasheed Hotel, with Saudi personnel evacuating by land. The U.S. mission remains under “ordered departure” guidance for staff to leave for their own protection, a State Department spokesperson told MBN.
MBN’s Ghassan Taqi and Mustafa Saadoon report that a recent airstrike in the center of Baghdad killed an IRGC operative known as “Ansari.” Intelligence sources say he was operating from a residence rented by the Iranian embassy. He was said to be acting as a coordinator for attacks by a pro-Iranian militia.
No party has claimed responsibility for the strike.
The tone of the messages from Washington is getting tougher. U.S. envoy Tom Barrack is pressing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al‑Sudani to disarm pro-Iranian militias.
On the ground, the picture is unstable. The Kataib Hezbollah paramilitary has announced a temporary five-day pause on attacks against the U.S. embassy, conditioned on the absence of airstrikes in residential areas. Iraq’s judiciary, meanwhile, is signaling escalation against pro-Iranian militias: Supreme Judicial Council head Faiq Zaidan warned that attacks on diplomatic missions constitute terrorism punishable by death.
Baghdad is not just a battlefield. It is becoming a test of whether the state can reassert control — or continue to operate alongside armed networks it cannot fully contain.
Picture of the Day
A drone view of children and teenagers in the Israeli settlement Peduel, playing with a part of a missile that landed in the playground of an elementary school last night. March 23rd, 2026. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
THE LEVANT FRONT
Lebanese Brace for New Invasion
Israel’s campaign in southern Lebanon is shifting from strikes to shaping the battlefield. Israeli warplanes have intensified attacks on infrastructure, targeting key bridges over the Litani River. At least two major crossings have been destroyed, alongside additional strikes near Tyre and along the coastal highway, effectively isolating the south and complicating both military movement and humanitarian access.
The stated objective is operational: to restrict Hezbollah’s ability to move fighters and weapons. But Lebanese officials worry that the attacks could be possible preparation for a full-scale Israeli invasion.
On the political front, rhetoric is also escalating. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has called for redefining Israel’s northern boundary at the Litani River, framing the war as an opportunity to impose a “new reality,” including potential territorial changes. Defense Minister Israel Katz has similarly warned that Lebanon could face territorial consequences if Hezbollah is not disarmed.
On the ground, Israeli military thinking reflects that shift. As Israeli analyst Orna Mizrahi told MBN, operations led by the 36th and 91st Divisions are moving toward a “forward defense” posture — expanding beyond the border into roughly 20 forward positions inside southern Lebanon, with forces advancing “house by house” to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure and push the threat farther north. The assessment within Israel’s security establishment is that airpower alone was insufficient, requiring ground operations to clear and hold terrain.
Yet Hezbollah keeps fighting — still supported by Iran. The result is a battlefield defined less by decisive outcomes than by endurance — shaped as much by infrastructure, geography, and time as by military force.
Beirut wants talks. Washington wants action.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is offering direct talks with Israel. Washington isn’t buying it. A senior U.S. official told MBN’s Joe Kawly that the United States is skeptical about the proposal. “Show us action on Hezbollah first—then we talk,” the official said, alluding to American and Israeli demands that Beirut must move to disarm the Shiite militia.
The official added that Lebanon is “desperately seeking a diplomatic exit.” The senior official stressed that Washington isn’t closing the door, but is seeking concrete measures to constrain Hezbollah. “Talks without action are a stalling tactic,” the official said. “The condition for any diplomacy is action on Hezbollah’s weapons first, not promises.”
A SHIITE SHIFT
Najaf vs. Qom
For centuries, Shiite religious authority was meant to guide, not govern. That changed after Iran’s 1979 revolution, when Ayatollah Khomeini fused religion and state power under a system granting a single cleric sweeping authority.
Today, that model is under strain. MBN’s Rami Al Amine reports that the IRGC’s growing consolidation of power is pushing Iran further away from clerical rule and toward a centralized military-security state, deepening a long-standing divide within Shiite authority.
On one side is Iran’s Qom model, built on absolute religious and political control, now increasingly shaped by the IRGC. On the other is Iraq’s Najaf model, led by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, which limits clerical intervention and prioritizes public stability.
The rise of Mojtaba Khamenei following his father’s death has raised new questions about hereditary leadership in Iran—something historically rejected in Shiite tradition—while Sistani’s advanced age has brought quiet attention to succession in Najaf, where his son, Mohammad Ridha Sistani, is emerging as a stabilizing figure.
The result is a moment of uncertainty that could redefine not just religious leadership, but the balance of power across the Shiite world.
Two Wars, One Battlefield
In an interview with MBN’s Editor in Chief Leila Bazzi, former Assistant Secretary of State Mark Kimmitt describes the war in Iran as a fundamental mismatch of strategies (American military attrition against Iranian endurance). The conflict is reminding us, says Kimmitt, that dominance does not equal control, especially in the Strait of Hormuz. This is not one war — it’s two.
The United States is measuring progress in targets destroyed and capabilities reduced. Iran is fighting a different fight entirely — one built on patience, absorption, and the ability to outlast. That gap is what defines the conflict. Iran doesn’t need to win; it just needs to hold.
Nowhere is that more evident than in Hormuz. The U.S. may be able to secure the waterway militarily, but it cannot guarantee market confidence. And in this phase of the war, limited disruption can outweigh overwhelming force.
Excerpt:
Q: We’ve been hearing for some time now that Iran is breaking. The first question, is that true? How can you explain the gap between the public narrative and the battlefield reality?
A: I believe that we are fighting two types of wars. The United States is fighting a war of what we call attrition, where they think that by reducing the number of rocket launchers, by reducing the number of tanks, by reducing the number of radars, as those numbers go down, Iran gets weaker. But that’s not the war that Iran is fighting. Iran is fighting a classic war of resistance. Now in that type of war, and I’ll mispronounce these words, but there are two elements of that kind of war, which is Mukluwama resistance, and Sabour, which is patience. And as you can see from Lebanon, the Lebanese just waited out the Israelis. You remember in 2006 when the Israelis were worn out, they withdrew and Hassan Nasrallah came out of his hole, and they held a victory parade even though the entire land was destroyed. And in that type of war, you only have two kinds of people. You have the martyrs who have died, and you have the Mukwamen, the resistors who are alive. You look at all the damage around you; well that’s just the physical representation of resistance. It all comes down to patience. And where the United States is not patient, the Iranians are patient.
For the full conversation, click here
Leila Bazzi
Leila Bazzi is Editor-in-Chief of MBN
Joe Kawly
Joe Kawly is Washington Bureau Chief for MBN and a global affairs journalist with more than twenty years covering U.S. foreign policy and Middle East politics.
A CNN Journalism Fellow and Georgetown University graduate, he reports from Washington at the intersection of power and diplomacy, explaining how decisions made in the U.S. capital shape events across the Arab world.
Ghassan Taqi
A journalist specializing in Iraqi affairs, he has worked with the Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN) since 2015. He previously spent several years with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, as well as various Iraqi and Arab media outlets.
Rami Al Amine
A Lebanese writer and journalist living in the United States. He holds a master’s degree in Islamic-Christian Relations from the Faculty of Religious Sciences at Saint Joseph University in Beirut. He is the author of the poetry collection “I Am a Great Poet” (Dar Al-Nahda Al-Arabiya, 2007); the political pamphlet “Ya Ali, We Are No Longer the People of the South” (Lebanese Plans, 2008); a book on social media titled “The Facebookers” (Dar Al-Jadeed, 2012); and “The Pakistanis: A Statue’s Biography” (Dar Al-Nahda Al-Arabiya, 2024).
