In September 2023, a massive project was announced that was said to have the potential to reshape global trade: the corridor linking India, the Middle East and Europe.
Leaders of the Group of 20 signed the preliminary agreement in New Delhi at the time, showering the project with praise. Former U.S. President Joe Biden described it as “historic,” while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “We are planting seeds that will make the dreams of future generations bigger.”
But less than a month later, the Oct. 7 attack occurred, and Israel launched a war on Gaza in response. Priorities were rearranged.
As the fifth anniversary of the Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab states arrives, the contrast between the period before Oct. 7 and after is stark. Projects born with sweeping promises—linking continents, linking countries of the region including Israel—today face the test of a reality defined by drones and rockets.
Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel quickly brought normalization to a halt, blocking the path for more countries to join the Abraham Accords. It also became one of the main factors hampering the India–Middle East–Europe corridor, according to some observers.
“The near-certain likelihood is that the Oct. 7 aggression was coordinated with Iran to thwart this project, and they succeeded in that. But we hope Arab leaders will have the wisdom we trust in and resume work on it,” Mendi Safadi, a member of Israel’s Likud Party Center, told Alhurra.
Economic Rationale
On paper, the project represents a vital corridor linking South Asia to Europe along an integrated route stretching from India to the Arabian Gulf by sea, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel by rail, and on to the port of Haifa, from where goods would continue by sea to European ports such as Marseille, Piraeus and Trieste.
The project includes the transport of goods and energy, cutting shipping time between India and Europe by up to 40% compared to the traditional Suez Canal route. It also envisions pipelines for green hydrogen to meet Europe’s renewable energy demand, in addition to electricity grids and data cables to strengthen digital connectivity among the participating countries and continents.
The corridor is meant to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, launched more than a decade ago, which continues to raise concerns among participating states about Beijing’s dominance. But it “does not represent an alternative, since Belt and Road includes 150 countries and has already delivered projects worth $1 trillion,” said Afaq Hussein, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and head of the Office of Industrial and Economic Foundations Research.
Trade between India and the European Union exceeds $120 billion annually, while trade between India and Gulf states reaches about $161 billion – figures that underscore the project’s major economic significance in supporting commerce and expanding global supply routes.
India needs faster and safer trade corridors, while Europe seeks to reduce dependence on the Suez Canal, which carries about 12% of global trade and 30% of container shipments. The corridor states, particularly those in the Gulf, remain central to any arrangements.
Saudi economist Abdulaziz al-Muqbil noted “the Gulf’s strategic location could make it a key part of the project if it builds the right infrastructure
Major Challenges
Despite the fanfare at its launch, progress on the corridor has been slow. Researcher Afaq Hussein says it still lacks a clear plan, financing and infrastructure.
“One ship can carry up to 15,000 containers from India to Dubai, requiring 100 trains to reload, showing the scale of infrastructure needed,” Hussein said.
In addition to building thousands of kilometers of railway, the project would require upgrading ports, including Haifa, whose capacity is currently no more than 1.5 million TEU containers. Roads and bridges would also need expansion, and cross-border pipelines and cables connecting the corridor states must be completed.
Security Threats
Risks are a serious obstacle to implementing a corridor that crosses multiple Middle Eastern countries.
In the Red Sea, Houthi attacks on commercial vessels continue, though they have recently eased, disrupting maritime traffic and global trade.
But Safadi said political shifts and Houthi attacks make the corridor more vital than ever. “The Houthis’ threat to maritime traffic demands urgent work on the Gulf land link to Israel,” he said, adding that affected states must cooperate to eliminate the danger.
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have demonstrated the impact of “security shocks” on shipping routes, said Mohamed Zureik, a postdoctoral fellow at Sun Yat-sen University.
“Any new outbreak of violence or renewed cross-border conflict could disrupt land checkpoints, insurance and investor interest along IMEC itself,” he added.
This underscores the need for regulatory anticipation of risks, preparation for emergencies, and assurances to companies with financial guarantees.
Corridor Hinges on Normalization
The Abraham Accords were signed in Washington in September 2020, normalizing relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, with Morocco and Sudan later joining.
Unlike Israel’s peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, the accords also emphasized economic cooperation and cultural exchange. Washington had hoped for other Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, to follow.
But Safadi said Riyadh is seeking concrete political and security gains, while delays in the India–Europe corridor weaken the economic incentives that could have bolstered public support for normalization.
He warned that failure to implement the project risks giving Arab critics more arguments that normalization has yet to deliver real benefits. The Oct. 7 attacks froze Arab normalization with Israel altogether, adding another obstacle for the corridor. Researcher Mohamed Zureik said the biggest diplomatic challenge now lies in Israel’s ties with Arab allies. Washington and Riyadh have made clear that any Saudi step toward normalization must be linked to calm in Gaza and progress on the Palestinian track, while Jordan’s relations with Israel have remained tense since late 2023.
Project’s Future
On Oct. 2, 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the corridor “will become the basis of world trade for hundreds of years.” In February 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump called it “one of the greatest trade routes in history.” Despite limited progress between those dates, some countries have advanced. The UAE and India are preparing to launch their $20 billion section, focused on creating a digital platform to share port data, improve efficiency and strengthen connectivity.
This step shows delay rather than demise, and global trends may yet work in the corridor’s favor. As Saudi economist Abdulaziz al-Muqbil noted, “The key measure of success for logistical corridors is the volume of trade expected to pass through them. With China and India projected to account for half of global economic growth, these routes will be highly valuable for their host countries.”
Though presented as a strategic project that could change global trade rules, the corridor’s path remains fraught with political mines, security volatility, infrastructure gaps and unresolved funding. Between India’s promises, Europe’s dreams and the Gulf’s calculations, the question lingers: Will the corridor be born out of crises, or remain ink on paper?
Sakina Abdallah
A Saudi writer, researcher, and TV presenter
