The war in Sudan is no longer confined within its borders or limited to the edges of the Blue Nile region. Signs are emerging of a new and more dangerous phase, as Sudanese intelligence reports and statements by local officials in Port Sudan indicate that Ethiopia has shifted from being an “observer” of developments in Sudan to becoming an active transit route and launch point for military movements planned by the Rapid Support Forces against Sudanese army positions.
The story begins along the Sudanese-Ethiopian border. According to journalist Al-Sadiq Al-Rizaiqi, “the information about the new developments in the Blue Nile and Benishangul areas is accurate, some of it is intelligence-based and some is from military sources.”
These developments, Al-Rizaiqi said, involve “specific forces moving in the area, including a group affiliated with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement led by Youssef Tikka, a rebel aligned with Abdelaziz al-Hilu, who signed an agreement with the Rapid Support Forces as part of the Nairobi founding group.”
While Sudanese news websites have reported Ethiopian support for the Rapid Support Forces, Al-Rizaiqi said that “this support began some time ago. Military equipment has started arriving directly from inside Ethiopia and also via an air bridge into the Benishangul area, specifically the Ethiopian region of Assosa.”
Conversely, Sudanese journalist Faisal Saad places these movements within a broader framework. He views them as part of a military strategy aimed at exhausting the Sudanese state by opening multiple fronts. He said that “forces have been assembled, trained and fully equipped in Ethiopia, receiving substantial logistical support under Emirati sponsorship, in what is known as the ‘stretching the limbs’ operation.”
The United Arab Emirates has denied involvement in the war in Sudan, describing reports that it has supplied weapons to the Rapid Support Forces as unfounded allegations.
Saad said the situation is growing more dangerous because of the geographic location of these movements. “The area extends from the Ethiopian Heights to Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia, and reaches as far as Djibouti,” he said, adding that this whole area might become conflict-inflicted should fighting break out.
Al-Rizaiqi, for his part, said that “by opening this front, the Ethiopian government wants to put pressure on Sudan so that it does not align with Egypt on the issue of Nile waters. This is the area where the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is located.”
On the ground, experts say a confrontation is drawing closer. Saad summarized the situation by saying, “Forces are amassing and will move into and strike Sudanese territory, specifically in the areas of Kurmuk and Qeissan, while the Sudanese Armed Forces and their allies are mobilizing to repel the attack.”
Al-Rizaiqi said the developments are neither covert nor unclear but closely monitored by Sudan. “The training of Rapid Support Forces in open camps and their preparation in Ethiopian areas are real and documented facts observed by the Sudanese side, and the Sudanese government will deal with them,” he said.
