In a strategic reading of shifting dynamics in the Red Sea, Ilan Berman links Israel’s recognition of “Somaliland” to Tel Aviv’s effort to position itself as a guarantor of international maritime navigation through a strategy of forward deterrence. He points to the emergence of what he describes as a gradual strategic alignment among regional actors, alongside a nontraditional proposal advocating a “two-state solution” in Yemen as a way to contain the Houthis and dismantle their expanding connections in the Horn of Africa.
Ilan Berman, senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council, said in an interview with Alhurra that the core of Israel’s move “is because there’s a geopolitical opportunity to do that,” citing regional shift and shifts in international affairs over the past year that have “really created an opening.”
Somaliland lies opposite Yemen on the other side of the Red Sea and has enjoyed de facto independence since 1991 without international legal recognition.
That geography, Berman said, gives Israel “the ability to look across the Red Sea and be closer to the Houthis,” adding that this proximity “may be a potential deterrent for Houthi action against Israel itself” and “may be a potential platform for action if circumstances allow, if circumstances require it.”
He said Israel continues to grapple with the threat posed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and that access to Somaliland enhances Israel’s strategic posture in that context.
Berman also pointed to growing concerns within Israel’s security establishment that the Houthis are no longer confined to Yemen. He said Israeli intelligence has become increasingly worried that the Houthis “have essentially jumped over the Red Sea” and have begun “at least tactical, possibly even strategic contacts, with groups like al-Shabaab.”
For Berman, this elevates Somaliland’s value not merely as a political move, but as part of what he described as “a forward security play by Israel that’s very concerned about the expanding capabilities of the Houthis.”
Israel as a Guarantor of Maritime Commerce
Berman said the disruption caused by the Houthis over the past two years has gone far beyond the security domain, with tangible economic consequences. He noted that Houthi activity “has added billions upon billions of dollars to consumer costs, downstream consumer costs,” due to rising shipping expenses, insurance premiums, and altered maritime routes.
Against that backdrop, he argued that Israeli access to Somaliland — particularly in coordination with regional partners — “de facto makes Israel a guarantor for maritime commerce in the Red Sea.”
“That’s hugely significant,” he said, adding that Israel has “started the conversation about having it be potentially a guarantor of security and stable commerce in the Red Sea,” calling it “a tremendous advance.”
Yemen and the “Two-State Solution”
Berman said Yemen is often viewed in Washington through the lens of “counterterrorism,” but that framework, in his view, has failed to reduce the Houthis’ influence or deter them. “Over the last two years, we’ve tried to approach the Houthis in Yemen as a counterterrorism problem, and we haven’t been very successful,” he noted.
He therefore proposes a shift toward an approach centered on “sovereignty and governance.” Under a “two-state solution” for Yemen, two de facto separate entities could provide a more effective partner in the south, narrow the Houthis’ room to maneuver, and place greater pressure on Houthi aligned groups across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. “If we recast the situation in Yemen as a sovereignty question, as a governance question, and begin to emphasize a more constructive partner in the south of the country,” he said, “I think it has the real potential to limit the reach and the effectiveness and the destabilizing capabilities of the Houthis.”
Saudi Arabia Between Politics and the Red Sea Economy
Berman said Saudi Arabia opposed Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, noting that “the Saudis have equities with Somalia.” At the same time, he stressed that Saudi Vision 2030 “depends very heavily on Red Sea commerce, Red Sea tourism and development.”
“The presence of a stabilizing force on the banks of the Red Sea, one that can constrain the Houthis in Yemen, is a net positive,” he said, adding that Riyadh is currently balancing “competing impulses” and that “the decision has not been made in Riyadh yet.”
Quiet Positions and a Forming Alignment
Addressing regional reactions, Berman said the Arab League issued a statement opposing recognition, while Qatar and Turkey made public objections. What stood out more, he said, were countries that remained silent.
“The Emirates has been quiet,” he said, describing its position as complicated given its membership in the Arab League and its partnership with Israel under the Abraham Accords. “Its silence speaks volumes,” he added.
He also noted that Morocco did not issue a statement opposing the move.
“We’re beginning to see a very interesting strategic alignment,” Berman said, with Israel’s partners “coalescing together,” extending beyond Abraham Accords countries.
Turkey, Egypt, and Iran
Berman described Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as “an enormously problematic actor” from Israel’s perspective, noting concerns about a “close-in Turkish presence in Syria” and potentially in Gaza. He said portraying Israel as a constructive stakeholder in Red Sea and sub-Saharan Africa security “takes away at least some of the fire from Erdoğan’s statements” that depict Israel as “a destabilizing force.”
On Egypt, Berman said Cairo’s “passivity at the height of Houthi activism was always puzzling,” particularly because Egypt’s economy is “so brittle” and relies heavily on maritime commerce.
Regarding Iran, Berman said Tehran has proven effective as “a destabilizing force” but is facing serious internal challenges. He cited protests in Tehran and other cities, describing an economy “in freefall” and a currency collapse that has caused ordinary Iranians to “lose the vast majority of their savings.”
“This is a fundamental threat to the Iranian regime,” he said, adding that while Iran remains expansionist, “at least for the moment, I would think the Iranians are preoccupied.”
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan, a Yemeni journalist and documentary filmmaker based in Washington, D.C., holds a master's degree in media studies.
