Yemen’s unity is no longer a foregone conclusion. The shared experience forged by history over more than three decades of unity has not guaranteed that geography will remain unchanged; it may instead have provided sufficient reasons to make the redrawing of maps a real possibility.
The most significant step in this equation came from Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC), which on Friday unveiled a constitutional declaration for the establishment of the “State of South Arabia.”
The Council, led by Aidarus al-Zubaidi and currently engaged in confrontations with Yemeni government forces, announced a two-year transitional period to be followed by a popular referendum on southern independence.
This declaration marked the STC’s exit from the gray zone in which it had remained for many years. While it offered clear answers regarding the Council’s practical intentions, it also placed the country at a new crossroads, raised numerous questions about the future of the south, and further complicated a landscape in which “the sound of guns” clash with “regional agendas.”
Provisions of the Constitutional Declaration
The constitutional declaration, tied to a transitional phase, laid out a roadmap for the establishment of the “State of South Arabia.” It included provisions defining the identity of the proposed state and its political system.
The declaration stated that the “State of South Arabia” would be an independent, sovereign state with Aden as its capital, and with borders corresponding to the former international borders of the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen. Arabic would be its official language and Islam its religion, with Islamic law identified as a primary source of legislation.
It stipulated that the political system would be based on the principle of separation of powers within a civil, democratic state. The final form of the system would be determined by the people through a general referendum following the transitional period. The head of state would be the president mandated to restore the state, who would serve as supreme commander of the armed forces and head of the transitional government.
The declaration set the duration of the transitional phase at two years, extendable once, with the aim of building state institutions, drafting a permanent constitution, and organizing a referendum to determine the political system.
The Significance of the Constitutional Declaration
The constitutional declaration moves the STC’s secessionist orientation from the realm of theory into practical implementation, laying the groundwork for on-the-ground steps that institutionalize separation through the creation of its mechanisms and institutions.
Iyad Qasim, head of the South24 Center for News and Studies, said the declaration is foundational and “falls within what is known as transitional revolutionary legitimacy.” He added that its true importance lies in its overtly political nature, noting that it shifts the southern cause “from the sphere of demands to the sphere of declaring a governing constitutional framework. It is the imposition of an organized fait accompli.”
On the ground, however, the picture appears far more ambiguous. The declaration was unveiled at a moment of intensified fighting between the UAE-backed STC and forces of the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which is supported by Saudi Arabia.
This reality opens the door to further uncertainty about how events will unfold on the ground, with significant implications for the fate of the constitutional declaration and the “State of the South” project.
Nevertheless, Amr al-Baidh, the STC president’s representative for foreign affairs, pledged in remarks to Alhurra to implement the constitutional declaration “without a doubt,” warning of a “declaration of the state if the aggression continues.”
On Friday, government forces launched an operation to retake military positions recently seized by STC forces in southern and eastern Yemen.
Salem al-Khanbashi, governor of Hadramawt, said his forces had taken control of a military camp in al-Khasha‘a, the largest and most important military base in Hadramawt province.
These developments followed the STC’s seizure in December of large swaths of southern Yemen, a move that ignited a sharp conflict in Yemen and the wider region.
That escalation led to severe strains in Saudi-Emirati relations. Saudi Arabia carried out airstrikes on Yemen’s Mukalla port and other strikes targeting STC forces in Hadramawt, while the UAE announced the withdrawal of its remaining forces from Yemen after Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council head Rashad al-Alimi demanded that they “leave all Yemeni territory within 24 hours.”
The Future of Southern Yemen
STC’s constitutional declaration will have a major impact on the positions of Yemen’s internal actors and the trajectory of their conflict. It will also test—and interact with—regional influence in the country.
Al-Baidh underscored what he described as “actual escalation against us. There was escalation today (Friday). They used all types of weapons in the military operation.” He added: “We will continue. We will defend our land to the very end.”
However, the STC’s insistence on the constitutional declaration and its readiness to fight do not guarantee the future the Council envisions for the south. Other Yemeni, regional, and international actors will inevitably play decisive roles.
Salem spoke of “three scenarios for the constitutional declaration.” The first, he said, would see all forces, including Saudi Arabia, halt escalation and move toward de-escalation, which could mean entrenching the current reality.
The second scenario would involve economic and security pressure through a range of measures, including the relocation of the central bank from Aden.
The third scenario, Salem said, would be “a fierce war with the southerners. This would push the Southern Transitional Council to shorten the transitional period and fully declare the establishment of the State of South Arabia.”
If any of these scenarios were to materialize, Yemenis would find themselves at another decisive moment in their history—one they know well, having experienced division, civil war, and unification in the past century, and more recently the fall of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s regime in 2012.
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan, a Yemeni journalist and documentary filmmaker based in Washington, D.C., holds a master's degree in media studies.
