Is Iraq Being Pulled into the War?

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani had hoped that his country would remain insulated from the fallout of the renewed war that erupted Saturday morning, following Israeli airstrikes on Iran. That hope, however, did not materialize.

Today, four members of armed factions were killed in what was described as a “mysterious” strike in Diyala province, which borders Iran. A day earlier, four others were killed in a strike targeting the Jurf al-Sakhar area south of the country.

On Sunday morning, a group of supporters from Kataib Hezbollah, along with other factions, attempted to reach the U.S. Embassy inside Baghdad’s Green Zone. Iraqi security forces prevented them from doing so, in a scene reminiscent of the storming of the U.S. Embassy on December 31, 2019 — an incident also carried out by the same group.

Kataib Hezbollah, led by Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, and Harakat al-Nujaba, led by Akram al-Kaabi, have also moved toward entering the conflict. The Brigades declared their readiness to launch attacks against U.S. interests, while al-Nujaba said in a press statement that all American troops in West Asia “have had their lives mortgaged because of Trump and his policies.”

A report by Alhurra, published last Thursday, had anticipated that Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba would quickly join the war alongside Iran, noting the political embarrassment this would create for the Iraqi government and the Shiite Coordination Framework should that occur.

Two sources told Alhurra, one government official and the other from within the Shiite Coordination Framework, that “major efforts are underway to prevent any attacks from being launched from Iraqi territory,” explaining that these efforts focus on engaging with Kataib Hezbollah and al-Nujaba to deter them from carrying out any military actions.

Yesterday, Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that the strikes targeting armed factions, as well as reports of a strike on al-Harir Air Base in the Kurdistan Region, are “systematic attempts to push Iraq into the ongoing armed conflicts in the region.”

Heba Abdel Wahab, a researcher specializing in Iraqi affairs and regional politics, believes that “if any of the armed factions in Iraq enter the war — under any banner — whether by providing support or by striking U.S. military bases, Iraq will inevitably and directly be drawn into the war.”

Abdel Wahab, who has worked at U.S. research centers in Washington, told Alhurra: “If Sudani’s government decides to move forward with disengaging from the factions, controlling their behavior, and coordinating with the United States, there may be a chance to contain the crisis and prevent the situation in the country from spiraling.”

Overnight, air-raid sirens sounded at Baghdad International Airport, according to a witness living near the airport who spoke to Alhurra. A rocket was also seen crossing Iraqi airspace near the airport.

In Kirkuk province, an unidentified rocket landed Sunday afternoon in an agricultural area. Hours earlier, two drones had fallen in Nineveh province in the north of the country.

In Jurf al-Sakhar, a rocket also landed without causing any casualties; it was later determined to have been a “malfunctioning” projectile, according to security sources who spoke to local media.

Meanwhile, journalist Mustafa Fahs, who closely follows Iraqi affairs, said that “the entry of armed factions into the war does not mean that the Iraqi state has officially declared war. The government in Iraq typically seeks to keep any involvement unofficial in order to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States or other parties.”

Fahs added in remarks to Alhurra: “Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani can attempt to de-escalate politically and on the security front, but he does not have full control over all the factions. His ability to act would therefore be partial and limited if the regional conflict intensifies.”

In Basra, debris from rockets and drones fell overnight, though no injuries were reported. According to Governor Asaad al-Eidani, the drones did not originate from outside the country but were launched domestically.

Despite these developments, as of Sunday afternoon no attacks had been launched from Iraqi territory toward Israel or Gulf states — suggesting that Baghdad’s efforts are, at least for now, still succeeding in keeping Iraq officially “at arm’s length” from the war.