New and out now: MBN’s Iran Briefing Podcast hosted by Andres Ilves and joined today by Leila Bazzi and Matthew Kaminski. They talk about the latest in the conflict, who’s running Iran, the thinking in Jerusalem and Washington, rising energy prices, and the impact on the region and world.
Watch or listen to the MBN Iran Briefing Podcast.
The conflict has already surpassed the 12-day mark, the time that the U.S. and Israel took to fight with Iran last June. On Thursday, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, released a written statement striking a defiant tone, vowing that Iran would continue to block the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, and wouldn’t stop from “avenging the blood of the martyrs.” He hasn’t been seen or heard, though.
This week we also look at China and Iran, and the fallout in Lebanon, Iraq and the Gulf.
The Friday Briefing is also published in Arabic. If you were forwarded this newsletter, subscribe here. We’d love to hear from you at thebriefing@mbn-news.com.
This Week on MBN
Lebanon Watches with Hope and Distrust
As war engulfs Iran, Lebanese reactions reveal a complex mix of hope, anger, and deep skepticism. Some see the strikes as a chance for Iranians to escape authoritarian rule, while others view them as another episode of foreign domination in the region. MBN’s Magazine contributor Joumana Haddad says the Lebanese people remain divided over Iran’s role and Hezbollah’s loyalty to Tehran, yet united in a broader distrust of both regional and global powers.
Read the article here
Iraqi Shiites Won’t Fight Iran’s War
Many Iraqi Shiites reacted with shock and sorrow to the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Yet their political and religious loyalties remain rooted primarily in Iraq’s Najaf clerical establishment rather than Tehran. MBN’s Magazine contributor Ahmed Saadawi argues that while pro-Iranian factions in Iraq amplify grief and call for resistance against the United States and Israel, most Iraqi Shiites show little appetite for joining Iran’s war.
Read the article here
MBN Iran Briefing:
Andres Ilves’ weekly reporting and understanding of what’s going on in Tehran and its impact on the wider world.
Iraq Faces Growing Tension
Pro-Iran armed factions in Iraq have launched several attacks on U.S. interests and diplomatic sites despite Baghdad’s decision to stay out of the regional war. MBN’s Baghdad correspondent Mustafa Saadoon reports that the Iraqi government is actively working to prevent further attacks, contain these militias and avoid a destabilizing internal conflict.
Read the article here
U.S. Balancing Act in Lebanon
The United States has avoided issuing a formal statement on recent Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Analysts tell MBN’s Ezat Wagdi that while Washington supports Israel’s military response, it wants the retaliation confined to Hezbollah rather than Lebanese state institutions or infrastructure.
Read the article here
The Houthis Are Holding Fire
Despite their close alliance with Tehran, Yemen’s Houthis have so far stayed out of the U.S.–Israeli confrontation with Iran. Analysts tell MBN’s Ezat Wagdi that the Houthis may be preserving their Red Sea leverage— where they could fire missiles at vessels crossing the Strait of Bab Al-Mandab— for a more decisive moment.
Read the article here
Gulf Finances Under Pressure
Rising regional tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are testing the Gulf states’ fiscal resilience just as many of their 2026 budgets return to deficit. Gulf countries still hold strong financial reserves, but, as Sakina Abdallah explains, extended war and supply chain disruptions—especially food imports— are rattling Gulf economies.
Read the article here
Gulf Airspace Closures Strand Thousands
Aviation hubs in Dubai and Doha have suspended operations after closing their airspaces – the biggest airline shutdown since COVID – amid escalating regional tensions. Aya Elbaz reports the disruption is already costing the Gulf’s tourism and cargo sector hundreds of millions of dollars and has stranded tens of thousands of passengers.
Watch the video here
Washington Trades Occupation for Targeted Disruption
The United States is moving away from the large-scale occupation model it used in Iraq in 2003. In video analysis, MBN’s Houda Elboukily explains that the new strategy centers on precision strikes, stealth aircraft, and targeted disruption of command structures. Still, Elboukily notes that analysts warn the strategy could leave behind a dangerous regional security vacuum.
Watch the video here
Joe Kawly brings you raw conversations with ambassadors, envoys and negotiators behind the hardest foreign policy decisions.
China Keeps Iran War Coverage Quiet
Chinese state media and tightly controlled social media platforms have taken a restrained approach to coverage of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. An analysis done by MBN’s China Tracker Editor Zhou Yu shows the conflict rarely dominates headlines and is largely framed in neutral or peace-oriented language.
Read the article here
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard: From Militia to Powerhouse
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards played a major role in choosing the country’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. MBN’s Dalshad Hussein profiles this apparatus and chronicles its rise from a small militia to a powerful network that influences Iran’s military, politics, intelligence, and economy.
Read the article here
Closer
There will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender. 
—U.S. President Donald Trum
