As part of efforts to expand and deepen regional cooperation, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is set to arrive in Saudi Arabia tomorrow, before heading to Egypt on Wednesday.
While the region’s pressing crises have heightened the significance of Erdoğan’s first foreign trip of the year, attention has turned to whether the visit could open the door to a more advanced level of coordination—or even a trilateral alliance—among Riyadh, Cairo, and Ankara.
These moves come amid a broader recalibration of regional power balances following October 7, 2023, as the three countries seek common approaches to confront threats affecting their sovereignty and stability.
They also follow the emergence of a new security axis led by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan after the two countries signed a joint defense agreement last September, stipulating that any attack on one party would be considered an attack on the other. Observers have spoken of the possibility that Turkey could join this arrangement, with Egypt potentially following later—an indication of a new regional equation taking shape to confront escalating security challenges.
The Turkish president’s visit to Riyadh and Cairo falls within a broader policy of regional outreach that Erdoğan has pursued over the past few years.
Relations between Turkey and Egypt had experienced a rupture lasting more than 12 years over the issue of the Muslim Brotherhood, before “returning to normal.” Erdoğan made his first visit to Cairo in February 2024, followed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s visit to Ankara in September 2024.
Political researcher Bashir Abdel Fattah told Alhurra that these moves coincide with Turkish coordination with Pakistan at a time when the balance of power has tilted in Israel’s favor, prompting these countries to seek ways to restore regional equilibrium.
Experts do not rule out the possibility that other countries, such as Turkey and Egypt, could eventually join the Saudi-Pakistani strategic defense agreement—an alliance that current regional conditions may make increasingly likely.
Taha Ouda Oglu, a researcher specializing in Turkish affairs and international relations, told Alhurra that the Turkish president’s visits to Riyadh and Cairo are significant in terms of both timing and agenda. At the top of the agenda, he said, are the repercussions of the Gaza war and the implementation of the second phase of the “peace plan” in the enclave, as well as the reshaping of regional alliances among the three countries at a time of waning Western interest in Middle East issues.
Ouda Oglu explained that the visit follows talk of an anticipated alliance including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, which is also expected to encompass Egypt. He pointed to ongoing coordination among the four countries on both regional and Arab issues.
Last month, Turkish Chief of General Staff Selçuk Bayraktar Oğlu met his Saudi counterpart, Fayez bin Hamed Al-Ruwaili, in Riyadh. Meanwhile, Egypt and Turkey signed an agreement on the joint production of unmanned aerial vehicles. The agreement was concluded between Turkey’s defense technology company HAVELSAN and Egypt’s Arab Organization for Industrialization.
In December, Israel’s Maariv newspaper commented that military cooperation between Egypt and Turkey had entered a new and “dangerous” phase after Cairo decided to join as a full partner in the development project of Turkey’s stealth fighter jet (KAAN).
Turkey also approved last year the supply of its Bayraktar TB2 drones to Egypt—among the world’s top-ranked unmanned aerial vehicles.
However, Dr. Mohammed Ozkan, a lecturer at Turkey’s National Defense University, told Alhurra that talk of a full-fledged military alliance among the three countries is still premature. He noted that “the visit is primarily aimed at taking a firm stance toward Israel and potential U.S. intervention in Iran, with less attention given to concrete military steps at this stage.”
Abdel Fattah believes cooperation among the three countries will remain within the framework of strategic and political coordination and understanding, rather than a traditional military alliance. The aim, he said, would be to fill any potential vacuum resulting from Iran’s exit from the strategic equation and the possible chaos that could follow. He added that the three states are seeking to formulate a political and military understanding that could help overcome lingering disagreements affecting bilateral relations.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey share a common position regarding developments in the Horn of Africa and the situation in Somalia.
Sources told Alhurra that the Sudanese and Somali files will be among the main issues discussed during the Turkish president’s visit, particularly after Somalia canceled several security agreements and port operation deals with the United Arab Emirates.
On January 16, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia is seeking to conclude a military alliance agreement that would include Egypt and Somalia as part of efforts to curb Emirati influence in the region. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is expected to travel to Riyadh soon to finalize the arrangements.
For all these reasons, Erdoğan’s visit to Saudi Arabia and Egypt carries significant importance—both in terms of its timing and the issues on the table. The key question remains whether it will pave the way for new alliances in the Middle East.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Alhurra
