Syria Wobbles

Welcome back to MBN Agenda. This new offering from the Middle East Broadcasting Networks, the premier Arab-first news and commentary platform on the region, is a window into what’s driving the conversation in key Arab capitals and Washington. 

This morning, what the killing of three Americans in Syria means for the country’s future. American diplomats hold tense meetings in Jerusalem. And why some big Asian names are suddenly turning up in Amman. 

If you prefer to read in Arabic, click here. Share your thoughts anytime at mbnagenda@mbn-news.com. And if this was forwarded to you, subscribe here.

– Cheyn, Ezat, Joe and Aya

One New Thing 

Washington Worries About Getting Syria Wrong 

The weekend killing of three Americans involved in counterterror operations in Syria is ringing loud alarm bells in Washington about President Ahmed al-Sharaa and the transition, now entering its second year, from the Assad regime.

A lot is riding on Sharaa. At home, he must rebuild Syria’s shattered infrastructure and quell ongoing violence among its many ethnic groups. In his neighborhood, he must steer his country between Israel and Iran – and further afield, between America and Russia.

Is the new leader up to the task? That’s the question raised by the attack on the U.S. counterterrorism force, the first American casualties of the post-Assad era, blamed on a lone ISIS perpetrator. 

One of the blind spots in Washington is the assumption that the country’s new leadership has a firm grip on power, according to a senior State Department official. “There is a tendency in DC think tanks to assume that figures like Ahmad al-Sharaa are fundamentally different – that because of his background, or his rhetoric, he can manage the narrative, control the factions, and keep Syria contained.”

“What we’re seeing now is that he does not control those dynamics,” the official said. “Large segments of ISIS remnants and HTS [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni Islamist group] offshoots are deeply unhappy with Al-Sharaa. They believe he has shifted, that he has become too moderate. And that perception alone is destabilizing.

“Alawite communities are anxious. Sunni factions are anxious. Kurdish actors are watching very closely,” the official told us. “There is a shared concern that Syria is not moving toward consolidation, but toward fragmentation.”

Europeans share the concerns heard in Washington. One European intelligence official laid out two scenarios now seen as most likely for Syria. “One is that Al-Sharaa’s position is temporary,” this person said. “The other is that Syria drifts toward serious internal unrest driven not by reconciliation, but by unresolved factionalism. These outcomes are not mutually exclusive.”

Implications for the U.S.

Damascus has been trying to gain American confidence that its forces can work with the U.S. military in Syria. For more than a decade, the United States has worked closely with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria, a partnership widely viewed inside the Pentagon as effective.

The attacks won’t make the U.S. feel more comfortable about working with Damascus-backed units, and the SDF won’t be more likely to integrate with them either, as much as Sharaa wants that to happen. 

“For years, there has been this theory that Syria can be stabilized if the right actors are empowered and the right incentives are applied,” the State Department official said. “That theory is far cleaner than the situation on the ground. Everyone wants a clean story. A narrative where Syria turns a page, bad actors are sidelined, and stability follows. But there is a parallel reality unfolding that is being glossed over.

“What Syrians are facing right now doesn’t fit into a neat transition model. And events like Palmyra are reminders of how fragile this moment really is.”

Quote of the Week 

“I’m going to die – please see my family [and tell them] I went down to save people’s lives.” 

– Ahmed el Ahmed speaking to his cousin, shortly before tackling one of the perpetrators of the anti-Semitic attack in Australia

Signals 

Washington —> Jerusalem: ‘Sharp and Private Messages’

The stalled efforts to move toward phase two of the Donald Trump-brokered Gaza peace plan is testing America’s relations with Israel. 

Israeli media focused in on an allegedly tense meeting Monday in Jerusalem between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the U.S. Special Envoy for Syria and U.S. Ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack. Netanyahu received “sharp and private messages” from the Trump administration about Gaza ahead of a highly anticipated U.S.-Israeli summit expected later this month in Florida, according to the reporting. 

Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Barrack sought to calm Netanyahu’s concerns over Turkey’s role, urging him to accept Turkish participation in an international force in Gaza. Barrack argued that Turkey is the most influential actor over Hamas and the most capable of persuading it to disarm, the story said. The envoy said that excluding Turkey would imperil the peace efforts, stressing that President Trump “will not allow this plan to fail.” 

Israel’s Channel 12 reported that the White House sent Netanyahu a “sharp and private message,” emphasizing that the killing on Saturday of senior Hamas military commander Raed Saad constituted a violation of the ceasefire agreement brokered by Trump.

Two U.S. officials told Channel 12 that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, have become “extremely frustrated” with Netanyahu.

Beijing <— Amman —> Delhi: Jordan Takes Center Court

The Jordanian capital is playing host this week to a couple VIPs from competing and rising Asian states. Presumably the visits weren’t coordinated, but they do signal something significant about great power competition in the region.

Narendra Modi is departing Amman Tuesday following meetings with King Abdullah II, in a first visit to Jordan by the Indian leader that coincides with the 75th anniversary of relations between the two countries. India has quietly become Jordan’s fourth-largest trading partner, with large investments in the Jordanian textile and phosphate industries. Modi is there to cut more deals, as India aims to become an export powerhouse. 

While Modi was enjoying a ceremonial welcome from the king, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was also in town, meeting with Jordanian counterparts as part of a broader Middle East tour. According to a dispatch from Xinhua, the Jordanians reiterated their “adherence to the one-China principle,” which states that “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory.” China returned the favor, affirming the Jordanian royal family’s custodianship of Jerusalem’s Muslim and Christian holy sites. Both countries also stated their commitment to an independent Palestine with 1967 borders. The Jordanians thanked Xi Jinping for a new offer of aid to Palestine. 

So what’s the draw to Amman this holiday season? 

The answer has to do with what Jordan isn’t – violent, lawless, unstable. Syria’s transition is hard. Egypt’s economy is a mess. Lebanon is troubled. So, if you’re a rising power looking to make friends in the Arab world, Jordan is a good bet outside the Gulf. 

In Brief

Tale of Two Policies

The new U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) says “the days in which the Middle East dominated American foreign policy in both long-term planning and day-to-day execution are thankfully over.” The Middle East is fourth on the document’s list of regions, above only the permanent also-ran Africa.

So the region’s fallen on the list of American priorities? Not quite, if you look at the  National Defense Authorization Act, currently under consideration in the Senate. 

The NDAA, which sets the budget and in effect priorities for the American military, leans well into the Middle East. That’s not a message many people took away from the NSS (See our newsletter last week, “What Trump Wants from the Middle East”.) 

The bill would end sanctions against Syria, paving the way for closer relations with Damascus. It provides funding to regional partners in the fight against Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic State. It mandates closer defense relations with Lebanon, Bahrain, and Jordan. And it “declares that supporting further defense policy cooperation with Israel is the policy of the U.S.,” according to a House Armed Services Committee fact sheet, with close to $200 million in new funding for anti-drone and tunnel defenses there.

What is going on? Is the U.S. backing away or not?

Retreat and engagement are a false dichotomy, according to a senior State Department official. “This is not a retreat from the Middle East,” the official said. “It’s a retreat from leading the region militarily as a default. Politically, diplomatically, and economically, the engagement remains. In some areas, it’s actually deeper.”

“Withdrawing forces does not equal disengagement,” the official said. “This administration is leaning more heavily on economic tools, diplomacy, conditional security assistance, and regional burden-sharing.”

 Closer

Where America Keeps Moving

From the road of trains to the rhythm of footsteps, the Washington & Old Dominion Trail is a living witness to a history that reveals itself only to those who slow down. Here, you don’t walk alone… you walk alongside memory. Join Lara Ajami for the ride.