O Brothers

Welcome back to the MBN Agenda, our in-depth weekly look at how Washington drives the news in the Middle East, and vice versa. This is a new offering from the Middle East Broadcasting Networks, the Arabic-first media platform for and about the region. Read the Arabic version of the newsletter. Tell us what you think at mbnagenda@mbn-news.com. And If you were forwarded this newsletter, subscribe here.

This week, our Joe Kawly reports on what’s behind Donald Trump’s decision to designate three national branches of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organizations.

We’ve also got insights into other high-stakes topics. The U.S. is bringing pressure to bear on post-election Baghdad. Russia may be setting up its first naval base in Africa – right next to some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. And Americans are scrambling to prevent a high-tech bomb from falling into Iranian or Russian hands.

Joe, Cheyn, Aya and Ezat 

One New Thing 

Why Trump’s Muslim Brotherhood Order Stops Short

President Trump is poised to designate three national branches of the Muslim Brotherhood as foreign terrorist organizations: The Lebanese, Egyptian and Jordanian arms.

Why not the whole organization? That’s the question vexing members of the MAGA coalition who have been pushing for a full designation for years. “People who wanted the entire Brotherhood designated are furious,” one intelligence source told Joe. “Look at [right-wing activist] Laura Loomer’s posts.”

The order lays out reasons for taking these case by case. Lebanon’s Muslim Brotherhood is accused of providing operational support to Hezbollah rocket strikes on Israel in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7, 2023, according to Trump’s executive order. The order claims a senior leader of the Egyptian branch called for violence against “U.S. partners and interests” in October. And it says Jordan’s branch provided “long-term material support” to Hamas. One senior counterterrorism analyst summed it up like this: “Three different countries, three different legal strategies. That’s why they picked them.” A broad designation, he added, would face “immediate challenges” in U.S. courts.

The EO gives the Secretaries of State and Treasury 30 days to review and 45 days to formally designate. That speed, the counterterrorism analyst suggested, means the administration thinks it has a strong case. Being designated a foreign terrorist organization means all U.S. assets get blocked and all U.S. citizens cannot provide material support or resources. It’s a big legal step.

This selective strategy isn’t new in foreign policy circles – even if it’s shocking some of the president’s allies. Matt Levitt, who now leads counterterrorism research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, advised on this issue at Treasury during George W. Bush’s second term in 2005-07. When asked why Qatar and Turkey, countries that have a substantial Brotherhood presence, were not included, he responded: “Some countries have lobbyists. Some countries have leverage. Some have both. And Qatar has been effective at keeping itself off the list, despite its well-documented support for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood during the [President Mohamed] Morsi era in 2012.”

Levitt added that the Turkish and Qatari branches weren’t as “clearly engaged in actual acts of violence.”

Ultimately, this is the first step in a long process. It will be hard to “freeze the right accounts without accidentally hitting a hospital, a school, or a charity,” Levitt warned.

“After 9/11, we saw what happens,” the counterterrorism expert Joe spoke to said. “Once designations start, lawsuits start. Investigations start. Some justified, some not. Small organizations get swept up. People spend years trying to clear their name.”

Click here to read Joe’s full reporting and here to watch the video

Signals 

It’s Israel versus the U.S. in Syria

The Trump administration is trying to make the most of last month’s historic visit by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa – but, as Ezat Wagdi reports, the Israelis don’t seem to have gotten the memo. Israeli soldiers on Friday conducted a rare ground raid into the Syrian town of Beit Jinn to detain alleged Islamist militants. Soon after that, Defense Minister Israel Katz told a closed Knesset hearing that Israel “is not headed toward peace with Syria,” citing intelligence on potential border breaches.

That stance raises questions about how far the Trump administration will be able to move ahead with its planned peace-building agenda in Syria. The Americans have paused sanctions, hoping to bring Syria into an anti-ISIS coalition and wean Damascus off reliance on Russian energy. Trump has just urged Israel to maintain a “strong and true dialogue” with al-Sharaa, posting on Truth Social that the U.S. is “very satisfied” with the new government’s progress.

Shortly after the post, the prime minister’s office confirmed that Netanyahu had spoken with Trump, who invited him to the White House.

Washington→ Beirut: The American Dud That’s Giving Lebanon a Headache

As if the Lebanese didn’t have enough problems, a report in the Jerusalem Post reveals a new one. The paper reports that Washington has asked the Lebanese Army to recover an unexploded U.S. glide bomb that failed to detonate during the Israeli strike that killed Hezbollah commander Haitham Ali Tabatabai on Nov. 23.

The bomb in question is a GBU-39, an advanced U.S.-made munition with sensitive GPS guidance technology – one reason the Israeli report has drawn attention in defense circles. The problem is that it’s probably located in territory controlled by Hezbollah – meaning that Iran or Russia could potentially gain access to sensitive components.

A Lebanese army official told MBN reporter Asrar Chbaro he had “no information” about any U.S. request, and added that if such a communication had been received, the military would have issued a public statement. When our reporter Yehia Kassem asked an Israeli military spokesperson whether the weapon used in the strike matched the description in the report, he offered only a brief “we’re looking into it.”

Moscow→Khartoum: Russia Maneuvers for a New Naval Base on the Red Sea

According to the Wall Street Journal, Sudan has offered Russia a naval base on its soil. The deal revives a 2020 preliminary agreement that could give Moscow its first permanent base in Africa – and a key position on the Red Sea.

The deal, if it materializes, would grant Russia a 25-year lease at Port Sudan or another Red Sea Facility. It would allow Moscow to dock up to four warships and station 300 personnel. In return, Sudan’s army is seeking Russian fighter jets, including the Su-30 and Su-35, according to Military Watch. That hardware could give the Sudanese military an advantage over its enemy, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), in the civil war that has been going on since April 2023.

The proposed deal with Russia surfaced days after Sudan’s army chief, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, rejected a U.S.-backed ceasefire, which would suggest that Khartoum is moving out of Washington’s orbit. Burhan accused Washington of favoring the RSF.

But in an exclusive interview with Aya, Sudan’s former foreign minister, Ali Alshareef, denied the existence of the Russia deal. He called the reports a “political tactic” aimed at pressuring Sudan’s government into distancing itself from Russia. He also said Sudan remains committed to Red Sea security and regional cooperation.

The U.S. has previously warned there would be serious consequences if Sudan grants Russia a military foothold on the Red Sea. It could widen sanctions on figures in Sudan’s government. Khartoum is also backed by close U.S. allies like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Washington could push them to cut Sudan loose.

  In Brief 

 Americans Ratchet Up Pressure on Baghdad

There’s a notable uptick of U.S. officials coming to Iraq in the wake of last month’s parliamentary elections – and they’re not bearing gifts, Deputy Secretary of State Michael Rigas, who arrived yesterday, is scheduled to meet with several Iraqi officials before inaugurating a new consulate building in Erbil. His arrival follows a surprise visit to Baghdad on Sunday by U.S. Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack, who met with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani. The visitors are demanding better governance, the disarmament of Iran-backed militias, and for those militias to stop supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon.

An Iraqi government advisor told MBN’s Ghassan Taqi that Washington is laying down the law: the leeway previously granted by Baghdad to armed factions and groups (mostly backed by Iran) must end. Everyone must lay down their arms and hand them over to the state.

The advisor added that Washington presented Iraqi officials with a choice. The Trump administration has said the United States will impose sanctions on any Iraqi government that includes representatives of pro-Iran armed factions.

A State Department spokesman declined to comment about Barrack’s message to Baghdad. But in a conversation with Joe Kawly, a European diplomat familiar with the visit backed up the Iraqi advisor’s claim that Washington is threatening Baghdad. According to the source, Barrack issued an ultimatum: either disarm Iran- or Hezbollah-affiliated groups, or Washington will let Israel strike them without interfering.

The pressure campaign is bigger than Iraq, the diplomat noted, though that country’s elections will likely give it either a pro-American leader (incumbent Al-Sudani) or a pro-Iranian one (former PM Nouri Al-Maliki.) Iran-backed militias in Iraq are allied with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Trump administration — and Israel — want Hezbollah disarmed. Isolating it from its friends abroad could be a first step.

“[Barrack] told Baghdad to control the factions and cut off any support that could help Hezbollah in Lebanon,” the diplomat said. “Neutrality isn’t a request. It’s a condition.”

The Trump administration’s isolation of Hezbollah in Lebanon from its allies in Iraq could pave the way for an Israeli attack on Hezbollah. “We fear that an Israeli operation against Hezbollah is coming,” the diplomat said. “And Iraq will face consequences if its militias intervene.”

Calendar

Israel-Hayom Summit (Dec 2, 10AM – NYC): Hillary Clinton, UN Ambassador Michael Waltz, NYC Mayor Eric Adams, and others will meet in New York for a daylong conference on the U.S.-Israeli relationship and global Jewish issues. Among the agenda items: a plan to help one million Jews make aliyah to Israel within a decade. Many architects of Trump’s Lebanon policy will also be in attendance.

Doha Forum (Dec 6-7, Doha): This high-profile gathering will highlight Qatar’s role as a global mediator. Christiane Amanpour will interview Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa; expect panels with Bill Gates, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump Jr., EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, and a host of others.