Trillion Ways Saudis Make Friends

Our weekly briefing on what’s driving events in the Middle East and Washington

By Joe Kawly, Aya Elbaz, Ezat Wagdi, and Cheyn Shah

Welcome back to the MBN Agenda, our in-depth weekly look at how Washington drives the news in the Middle East, and vice-versa. This is a new offering from the Middle East Broadcasting Networks, the Arabic-first media platform for and about the region. Read the Arabic version of the newsletter. Tell us what you think at mbnagenda@mbn-news.com. And If you were forwarded this newsletter, subscribe here.

On this Thanksgiving week in America, the mind turns to gratitude. This holiday was born from a simple hope — that even in the hardest of times, people can come together around one table. MBN’s Lara Ajami shares a short, powerful look at the history behind that idea and why it still matters today. Take a moment to watch it.

The news agenda for the Mideast this week comes down to a number – $1 trillion. It’s the GDP of Los Angeles, or Switzerland. If you make $50,000 a year, it will take you twenty million years to get there. If you’re the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, you snap your fingers and invest it across the U.S.

From Elon Musk to Cristiano Ronaldo, celebrities and CEOs descended on Washington last week to get the prince’s ear – and his wallet. This week, we’re tracking the outcomes. There’s a massive, rare earths partnership in the works. A diplomatic and economic high-wire act over the F-35 fighter jet, which Israel has, Ankara covets, and Riyadh may soon receive. And, looming over the frenzy of dealmaking, the fear that any tech Americans share will find its way into Beijing’s hands.

– Joe, Cheyn, Aya and Ezat

A Few New Things

Next Steps for Riyadh and Washington

U.S. business leaders are anticipating a flood of cash in the wake of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s transformative visit to Washington. The CEOs who flocked to the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum were focused on a single number: a potential $1 trillion Saudi investment in the U.S. economy.

In a conversation on the sidelines with Ezat Wagdi, Ignacio Garcia Alves, CEO of Arthur D. Little, the world’s oldest management consulting firm, told Wagdi that Saudi Arabia is implementing a “reverse Marshall Plan.” Speaking just after arriving from Belgium, still setting his suitcase aside, he said: “After World War II, the United States invested in rebuilding Europe… Today we see Saudi Arabia investing heavily in the U.S. economy and in advanced technologies.”

He smiled and added: “I actually feel jealous of the level of energy in Saudi Arabia…. The ambition there is moving at a speed we don’t often see elsewhere.”

On the Saudi side, Ahmed Al-Yamani, CEO of Takamol Holding, drew attention to a striking shift: “From the discussions, talk about oil didn’t exceed 5 to 10 percent… meaning 90 to 95 percent of the focus was on sectors far beyond oil.”
Takamol is a government-owned firm that provides workforce development in the Kingdom. It trains Saudi citizens for high-tech professions and vets foreign workers to make sure they hold useful qualifications.

Al-Yamani said Takamol signed agreements with Google and Oracle to shift major Saudi government platforms to cloud computing — a move he expects will reduce data-storage and service-delivery costs by 30 to 50 percent over the next three to five years, while significantly improving cybersecurity and user experience. He also pointed to long-term training programs with American universities such as Georgetown, Chicago, and Yale, aimed at localizing digital and consulting talent in the Kingdom.

By the end of the week’s meetings in Washington, one thing was clear: the Saudi-U.S. relationship is shifting far beyond the old framework based on security and oil. The center of gravity is moving toward technology, artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, and human capital — the sectors that will shape economic influence in the years ahead.

Here’s what to watch:

• Washington tries to keep Riyadh and Abu Dhabi at AI parity. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Commerce Department has reversed its earlier decision and allowed the sale of up to 35,000 Nvidia servers to Riyadh. But it gave the UAE the exact same deal. While Trump went out of his way to flatter and cajole MBS last week, he doesn’t seem to have a clear Gulf favorite when it comes to AI.
• Saudi’s rare earth elements are a cash cow, a military lifeline, and a potential bulwark against China – all at once. China dominates the supply chain for these minerals, which power everything from your iPhone to nuclear submarines. But Saudi Arabia has the world’s fourth-largest proven reserves. That’s why Washington is moving fast on this one. America’s only rare-earth producer, backed by the U.S. Department of War, will partner with the Saudi national mining company. Tellingly, the Saudis have a 51 percent stake. They’re getting American funding and know-how, but maintaining their independence.

Not All F-35s Are the Same

The F-35 is a coveted piece of technology. The Israelis have it. The Chinese would like to. Now the Saudis are in line to get the plane too, thanks to Donald Trump.

But it turns out not all F-35s are created equal. Trump said that the Saudi F-35s would be “pretty similar” to Israel’s. As one U.S. official familiar told our Joe Kawly, “‘Pretty similar’ does not mean equal. It means the shell is the same, the heart is different.”

Another source used an analogy that has been circulating in Pentagon and Israeli defense circles: “Think of it as two iPhones – they look identical, but one has the cameras disabled and the processor capped. On paper it’s the same device; in practice it’s not.”

This assessment aligns with reporting in the Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel, both noting that the aircraft offered to Saudi Arabia will come with downgraded mission systems, reduced electronic warfare suites, and export-safe software architecture to preserve Israel’s qualitative military edge.

“The problem is not selling the jet. The problem is protecting the jet from Beijing,” a former Israeli general said. Both the U.S. and Israel are focused less on the airframe and more on “the software backbone, data links, and the ecosystem that feeds the aircraft,” the general added. “China doesn’t need to steal the F-35. It needs to sit close enough to learn from it.”

Washington has another eager buyer for the F-35 in mind too, NATO ally Turkey. “Turkey wants a reset with Washington. They want F-35s,” said Soner Cagaptay, a leading expert on U.S.–Turkey military relations. “But after years of sanctions, the U.S. isn’t going to hand out the most sensitive configuration to anyone, including the Gulf.”

The tricky balancing act for Washington comes down to keeping Israel’s military edge, courting Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, working more closely with Turkey, and stopping Chinese theft of sensitive technology. The phrase “pretty similar” is doing a lot of work in Trump’s statements. The Saudis may get the jet, but not its heart.

Joe has more here on the F-35.

In conversation

Ottoman Moment

Turkey is expanding its footprint from Syria to Gaza. Egypt is quietly rebuilding its relationship with Ankara. Israel is alarmed. And the United States is trying to referee all of it while relying on Turkey in ways it won’t say out loud.

To make sense of this moment, Joe Kawly sat down with Cagaptay, one of the keenest watchers of Turkey in Washington. Soner pulls no punches: “You could say that the Middle East now has three poles: Iran and its clients, Israel and the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] and Turkey and Qatar…It’s a triangular relationship where everyone dislikes everyone.”

Listen to the latest episode of The Diplomat here

In Focus

Sudanese Pipes of Peace

“Arab leaders from all over the world,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social after MBS came to visit, “have asked me to use the power and influence of the Presidency to bring an immediate halt to what is taking place in Sudan.”

This puts the U.S. in a diplomatically delicate position: Two of its closest Arab allies support opposing sides in the conflict. Saudi Arabia backs the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the United Arab Emirates the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the rebels that are accused of committing a genocide in Western Sudan.

The UAE has welcomed Trump’s efforts to end the war in Sudan. So did the SAF and RSF. That’s a rare moment of alignment. Sudanese political analyst Osman Mirghani told MBN that “this opens a real chance for a negotiated end to the war.”

This diplomatic opening coincides with growing bipartisan pressure in Congress. Following reports of the UAE’s material support for the RSF, a group of U.S. lawmakers is urging Trump to suspend arms sales to Abu Dhabi. Others are pushing for the RSF to be designated as a terrorist organization.

Last Thursday, Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) introduced the “Stand Up for Sudan Act,” which would prohibit U.S. arms transfers to the UAE until it ends support for the RSF. (The UAE denies allegations that it supplies weapons to the RSF.)

Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch, told MBN that “Washington has enormous leverage over the United Arab Emirates.”

In Brief

‘Organized Sexual Slavery’

The U.N. alleges that the RSF is enslaving women. “We have 34 survivors whose cases have been documented,” Sudan’s Minister of State for Social Welfare, Suleima Ishaq, told the Agenda’s Aya Elbaz. “They were held in extremely harsh conditions. Their mental, physical, and emotional health was destroyed. Many were subjected to repeated rape. They were eventually rescued from RSF-controlled zones in Khartoum. This is organized sexual slavery. And it’s being used as a weapon of war.”

Aya asked Hala al-Karib, regional director of the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa, if women are being sold. Yes, she said, citing numerous reports of women.

Sadiq al-Razigi, the head of Sudan’s Journalists Union, noted that his fieldwork across the border in Chad found that foreign fighters are being promised payment, weapons, and a “Sudanese wife” in exchange for joining the RSF.

More from Aya here