Tuesday December 9th, 2025
Welcome back to MBN Agenda — your window into how Washington shapes the Middle East, and how the Middle East shapes Washington. This is a new offering from the Middle East Broadcasting Networks, the Arabic-first media platform for and about the region.
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Let’s get straight to the stories driving this week.
— Cheyn, Ezat, Joe and Aya
One New Thing
Trump’s Turned Page in Mideast
The rollout of a National Security Strategy is usually a quadrennial ho-hum event. A bureaucratic exercise forgotten soon after it happens. As so much with President Doland Trump, the rollout of his NSS last Thursday night attracted a lot of strum und drang headlines and consternated close textual readings.
The surprise for the Middle East? It was the region that received, relatively speaking, the most ho-hum treatment. It comes at number four of five priority regions for the Trump Administration, only ahead of the perennial afterthought of Africa. As for what the U.S. “wants” from the Middle East: “We want to prevent an adversarial power from dominating the Middle East, its oil and gas supplies, and the chokepoints through which they pass while avoiding the ‘forever wars’ that bogged us down in that region at great cost “ Gaza gets a single mention, and only as a problem that was solved. Syria gets an upbeat citation, as a problem that might be resolved.
The upshot: This region needs less American attention going forward, compared to Europe (in the midst of its “civilizational erasure”) or rising China. Part of it is the U.S. can now meet its own energy needs without relying on the Middle East. The bigger part, as the NSS asserts, is President Trump has already solved the region’s biggest headaches.
“The United States retains the most enviable position, reinforced by President Trump’s successful revitalization of our alliances in the Gulf, with other Arab partners, and with Israel,” the strategy document says. Iran is “greatly weakened” following the 12-Day War. Hamas’ chief backers have “stepped away.” Syria may “soon reassume its rightful place as an integral, positive player in the region.” And while the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “remains thorny,” Trump has made “progress towards a more permanent peace.”
The problems, in other words, are in the rearview mirror, smaller than they may appear. “The days in which the Middle East dominated American foreign policy in both long-term planning and day-to-day execution are thankfully over – not because the Middle East no longer matters, but because it is no longer the constant irritant, and potential source of imminent catastrophe, that it once was.”
The ceasefire in Gaza, a weaker Iran, a new Syria and Lebanon, possible expansion of the Abraham Accords that normalize ties between Israel and Arab states – all could create a new kind of Middle East. Also worth remembering: Every president since George W. Bush has tried to pivot away from the Middle East, only to get dragged back in by events.
Signals
Tehran → Washington: ‘Shaheds,’ American Style
U.S. Central Command last week announced the creation of its first-ever suicide-drone strike unit in the Middle East – a shift in American military posture that responds to a year of drone warfare across the region.
The new squadron, Task Force Scorpion Strike, will use a low-cost American drone called LUCAS. U.S. officials say this system is inspired by Iran’s Shahed-136, which Russia has fired by the thousands in Ukraine.
A CENTCOM official told Ezat that the new unit aims to “rapidly field emerging combat drone technologies that deter malign actors.” LUCAS, he said, is a cheap, long-range, easily modifiable platform that uses simple launchers and can reach distant targets.
U.S. defense sources told Ezat that work on LUCAS began after the Pentagon obtained a Shahed-136 years ago. What started as a forensic study became a full redesign – a relatively low-cost American version that provides for longer range, modular payloads, and no-runway launch capability. LUCAS drones can be fired from trucks or simple rails, then carry an explosive warhead straight into the target – the same battlefield logic pioneered by Iran.
CENTCOM has not disclosed the squadron’s location, but officials say it will be able to deploy quickly across the region.
Washington→Damascus: New Chevron Station
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa this week hosted a delegation from the American oil giant Chevron, according to state media in Damascus. The meeting tracks with the Trump administration’s approach to Syria: Though sanctions are still in place, Washington is eager to engage with the new regime in Damascus.
A visit by a U.S. supermajor implies a “political green light” from Washington, says Laury Haytayan of the Natural Resource Governance Institute. Chevron is already the dominant player in the Eastern Mediterranean, where it controls natural gas assets in Israel, Egypt, and Cyprus. Expanding northward to the Syrian coast might make obvious sense, she says. (Chevron declined to comment, telling MBN’s Randa Jebai only that it “constantly reviews new opportunities.”)
There’s a long way before any big deals happen. The Syrian coast is a “black box” in geological terms. Syria’s own energy sector collapsed during a decade-plus of civil war, with production falling from 8.7 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 3 bcm in 2023, according to BP and Energy Institute estimates.
The long-term play here? Bring Syrian gas into the Turkish pipeline network that connects up to Europe.
In Brief
Saudi Spigots Widen Open
Saudi Arabia projects a $44 billion budget deficit and increased public spending heading into next year to support the kingdom’s Vision 2030 infrastructure megaprojects and efforts to stimulate the non-oil economy.
Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan insists the budget creates a temporary “deficit by design”. But economists and analysts who spoke to MBN’s Gulf correspondent Sukina Ali say falling oil revenues combined with a reluctance to cut spending are leading the country to stretch its budget.
It’s an unusual – and risky – move for Saudi Arabia, which hadn’t expanded spending at times of declining oil prices.
Riyadh can finance the shortfall for now, but there are already signs that it may be scaling back some mega-projects. According to Reuters, the 2026 budget does not even mention real-estate boondoggles like NEOM or the Sindalah Island resort.
The bears are out. Eckart Woertz of Germany’s GIGA Institute told Sukina that if oil prices stay low, the government may have to “repatriate assets from abroad,” possibly liquidating its massive international portfolio to pay the bills at home.
Gulf: GCC Summit Pushes for Regional Missile Defense
When Gulf leaders met in Bahrain for the 46th Gulf Cooperation Council Summit last week, the most notable issue on the agenda: Building a state-of-the-art missile defense system.
With the recent 12 day war in Iran top of mind, GCC leaders declared themselves “indivisible” on security and reaffirmed the importance of a joint shield.
GCC Secretary-General Jasem Al-Budaiwi envisioned as a multilayered shield against drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic threats.
Read Sukina’s full report here.
Expert View
3 Hurdles to Phase II
The next “phase” of the Gaza ceasefire plan would bring an end of hostilities, the disarmament of Hamas, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces. Cheyn tuned into a Middle East Forum event with Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a native Gazan activist and blogger, to learn more about the challenges involved. Alkhatib focused on three:
There’s no “coalition of the willing” for Gaza. Indonesia and Pakistan have dramatically reduced their commitment to the proposed International Stabilization Force. The proposal is “flatlined” and “effectively dead” without further intervention from Trump. One idea from Alkhatib: Let private military companies do the high-risk initial work of clearing out Hamas and establishing law and order. National militaries could then take on the easier job of policing the new Gaza.
Tony Blair’s absence is a problem. The former British prime minister is out of the running for Gaza’s “Board of Peace,” according to the Financial Times and other outlets. He will continue to play a lesser role. His involvement in the Iraq War turned Arab and Muslim countries against him — particularly Egypt, says Alkhatib. This is a bigger issue than many people think – and a shame. Blair has spent much of his retirement building the contacts and ideas needed for such a daring diplomatic scheme. Without him, the process is set back.
How far does Trump really want to go? The American president has already accomplished quite a bit. Violence in Gaza has markedly decreased. Almost all Israeli hostages have been returned. Alkhatib worries that this might be enough for Trump to lose interest and disengage.
Cheyn Shah
Cheyn Shah is a journalist and analyst who has worked with CNN, Voice of America, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. He is now part of MBN’s Washington, D.C., team, where he covers U.S. foreign policy and Middle East affairs, bringing analytical depth and on-the-ground insight to MBN’s reporting from the American capital to the Arab world.
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan
Ezat Wagdi Ba Awaidhan, a Yemeni journalist and documentary filmmaker based in Washington, D.C., holds a master's degree in media studies.
Joe Kawly
Joe Kawly is a veteran global affairs journalist with over two decades of frontline reporting across Washington, D.C. and the Middle East. A CNN Journalism Fellow and Georgetown University graduate, his work focuses on U.S. foreign policy, Arab world politics, and diplomacy. With deep regional insight and narrative clarity, Joe focuses on making complex global dynamics clear, human, and relevant.
